Mar 08, 2026 23:38:00

Prediction market platform Kalshi faces class action lawsuit over bets on Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei

The US and Israeli attack on Iran is said to

have generated $830 million in trading on the prediction market Polymarket, while Kalshi, another prediction market, has been sued by users for invalidating bets on Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Kalshi customers who bet on the death of Iran's Ayatollah won't get any of the $54 million wagered, company says | The Independent
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/kalshi-bets-iran-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-death-b2932018.html

Kalshi sued over ouster of Iran leader prediction market | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/kalshi-sued-over-ouster-iran-leader-prediction-market-2026-03-06/

Prediction markets are platforms that allow people to bet on anything from sports results to small news stories of the day, with recent examples including bets on when former Venezuelan President Maduro would step down.

An account made more than 60 million yen in profits on Polymarket just before Venezuela's President Maduro was arrested - GIGAZINE

A US-Israeli attack on Iran saw bets on when the attack would occur, generating a total of $529 million in trades on Polymarket.

However, Kalshi invalidated the deal regarding 'Ayatollah Khamenei's resignation,' stating that 'transactions that directly require the death of a specific person as a condition for settlement are not permitted in the United States.'

In response, several users filed lawsuits, claiming that they had correctly predicted the time of Khamenei's resignation but had not been paid $54 million (approximately 8.5 billion yen).

The plaintiffs argue that if Khamenei were to 'step down' in a situation where the United States was widely expected to send an aircraft carrier strike group to attack, there was a realistic chance that he would be killed, and that Kalshi must have understood this.

Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut has expressed concern about the 'trading' taking place on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, and is drafting a bill to ban prediction market bets linked to government actions.