Nov 07, 2024 14:00:00

The 2024 US presidential election was a close race according to major media polls, but prediction betting sites predicted Trump to have a huge advantage.

The US presidential election will be held on November 5, 2024, and it is certain that Donald Trump will return to the presidency. Preliminary polls conducted by major media outlets predicted a close race, but at the time of writing, Trump has secured victory in five of the seven battleground states and won a large majority of the electoral votes. It has become a hot topic that the majority of predictions on the prediction betting market regarding the outcome of this election have been predicting a Trump victory since early October 2024.

Polymarket | Presidential Election Winner 2024

https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024

Election Betting Markets See Vindication in Trump Victory - The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/06/business/dealbook/prediction-markets-trump-win.html

Thousands of election gamblers anticipate betting jackpot after Trump win | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/thousands-election-gamblers-anticipate-betting-jackpot-after-trump-win-2024-11-06/

Polymarket, Prediction Betting Markets Vindicated by Trump's Strong Showing
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/11/06/polymarket-prediction-betting-markets-vindicated-by-trumps-strong-showing/

Polymarket is a service that predicts the outcome of various events in the world and pays rewards to those who guess correctly according to the odds. At the time of writing, the topics posted include ' Will Trump be able to end the war in Gaza within 100 days? ', ' Will Trump declassify the JFK files? ', and ' Will Trump deport illegal immigrants within 100 days? '.

The results of

the predictions for the winner of the 2024 US presidential election made by Polymarket are shown below, with the red line being a bet on Trump, the blue line being a bet on Kamala Harris, and the gray line being a bet on Joe Biden. . From May 2024, the majority of users predicted that Trump would win, and Biden's winning percentage dropped sharply immediately after the TV debate in June 2024. After that, when the Democratic candidate changed to Harris, the race became close, but in October 2024, the situation leaned in favor of Trump, and continued to be in favor of Trump until the voting day.

On the other hand, major media polls predicted a close race. For example,

a poll conducted by NBC News in November 2024 showed Trump and Harris tied at 49% in support.

In addition,

a New York Times poll conducted just before the election showed Trump with 48% approval rating and Harris with 49%, giving Harris a slight advantage.

Polymarket claims that 'Polymarke's predictions have been consistently more accurate than polls, media, and experts,' and that 'we have demonstrated the power of a highly liquid prediction market.'

Last night, Polymarket proved the wisdom of markets over the polls, the media, and the pundits.

Polymarket consistently and accurately forecasted outcomes well ahead of all three, demonstrating the power of high volume, deeply liquid prediction markets like those pioneered by…

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 6, 2024

Polymarket CEO Shane Coplan also posted on X that he had heard the Trump campaign was looking at Polymarket results.

I just got word that the Trump campaign HQ literally found out they were winning from Polymarket.

History was made today.

Surreal

— Shayne Coplan (@shayne_coplan) November 6, 2024

According to Reuters, one Polymarket user has bet $40 million on Trump's victory, and if Trump is officially nominated for president, that user stands to win $80 million.