Polymarket predicts US and Israeli attack on Iran: $830 million trade

Prediction markets , where people can predict and bet on real-world events, are gaining popularity. Bloomberg reports that Polymarket , the world's largest prediction market, traded $529 million (approximately 83 billion yen) in a trade on a February 28, 2026, bombing of Iran by the United States and Israel.

Polymarket Iran Bets Hit $529 Million as New Wallets Raise Insider Concerns - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-28/polymarket-iran-bets-hit-529-million-as-new-wallets-draw-notice

Polymarket saw $529M traded on bets tied to bombing of Iran | TechCrunch
https://techcrunch.com/2026/03/01/polymarket-saw-529m-traded-on-bets-tied-to-bombing-of-iran/

On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a large-scale military attack on Iran. U.S. President Donald Trump cited the need to prevent Iran's nuclear and missile development as the reason for the attack. According to Iranian state television, a missile strike by the United States and Israel hit a school in Minab, southern Iran, near the Strait of Hormuz, killing 57 students. It was also reported that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed.

US and Israel attack Iran, killing students; Iran retaliates, expanding to neighboring countries [US and Israel attack Iran, retaliation possible]: Asahi Shimbun
https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASV2X231WV2XUHBI03GM.html

Trump's biggest foreign policy gamble: attacking Iran | Reuters
https://jp.reuters.com/world/us/XCVYB3HPGBM7BF72PIPF5V3MBA-2026-02-28/

According to Bloomberg, Polymarket also saw trading related to the timing of a US-Israeli attack on Iran, totaling $529 million.

According to an analysis by the analytics firm Bubblemaps , six newly created accounts immediately before the attacks accurately predicted that the United States would attack Iran by February 28, 2026, and raked in $1 million (approximately 157 million yen). These six accounts are suspected of insider trading.

Bubblemaps CEO Nicholas Weimann pointed out that 'the proliferation of information related to war and conflict, combined with the anonymity of Polymarket, could create an incentive for informed participants to act early.'

In January 2026, Polysight , a startup that provides analytical tools to Polymarket users, pointed out that there was a sharp increase in bets that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei would retire from his position by the end of March.

we may have our first signals of 2026...

we're seeing unusual positioning in the Iran markets

this is risky, but the wave of new wallets are buying in with heavy concentration cannot be ignored.

let's dive in👇 pic.twitter.com/x3Vzl6Kv22

— Polysights (@Polysights) January 12, 2026

Regarding a US-Israeli attack on Iran, Kalshi, a prediction market service that competes with Polymarket, announced that any deal involving 'Ayatollah Khamenei's resignation' would be 'invalid because it would lead directly to his death.'

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated on X, 'Regarding Ayatollah Khamenei, we do not list transactions directly tied to death. If there is a transaction that includes death as a potential outcome, we design rules to prevent people from profiting from death,' announcing that the company would refund accounts that made transactions after Khamenei's death. Mansour also noted that 'creating transactions related to Ayatollah Khamenei is important in itself,' but explained that 'transactions that directly involve the death of a specific person are not permitted under US regulations.'

On Khamenei:

We don't list markets directly tied to death. When there are markets where potential outcomes involve death, we design the rules to prevent people from profiting from death. That is what we did here.

I know some of you disagree and prefer that we list these…

— Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) March 1, 2026

Some users have expressed anger at Kalshi's response.