An account made over 60 million yen in profits on Polymarket just before Venezuelan President Maduro was arrested
On Polymarket, a platform for betting on anything, a newly created account bet a large sum of money on the subject of 'Venezuela's President Maduro will step down by January 31, 2026,' making a profit of more than 60 million yen.
Someone made $400,000 on Polymarket betting on Nicolás Maduro's capture | The Verge
Maduro's capture gives Polymarket, prediction market traders huge profits
On January 3, 2026, US President Donald Trump announced that he had launched a major operation against Venezuela, capturing President Maduro and his wife and transporting them to the United States.
The United States launches a major attack on Venezuela, arrests President Maduro and his wife, and transfers them abroad - GIGAZINE
The United States has long been wary of Venezuela as a source of drug smuggling, and in September 2025, it sank three ships suspected of being smuggling vessels in the eastern Pacific, killing eight crew members. It also dispatched an aircraft carrier strike group off the coast of Venezuela to put pressure on the country.
Meanwhile, Polymarket, a prediction platform that allows people to bet on anything, launched a bet on November 3, 2025 on when President Maduro will step down.
Maduro out by...? Predictions & Odds | Polymarket
The specific content of the bet was whether President Maduro would step down from power by a deadline, and the rules were that he would be considered to have 'stepped down' if he offered to resign himself, or if he lost his position due to being arrested or was unable to fulfill his duties as the president of Venezuela.
The options were 'by November 30, 2025,' 'by December 31, 2025,' 'by January 31, 2026,' 'by February 28, 2026,' 'by March 31, 2026,' and 'by December 31, 2026.' The option of 'stepping down by January 31, 2026' was not particularly popular until just before the US operation to restrain Trump was launched.
The account in question was created just at the end of December 2025 and first purchased the option 'By January 31, 2025' for $96 (approximately 15,000 yen) on the theme ' By when will the US military be deployed to Venezuela? '. Then, on the theme of President Maduro's resignation, the option 'By January 31, 2026' was purchased for $1,238.34 (approximately 195,000 yen) and $85 (approximately 13,000 yen).
In addition to betting on the president's resignation, he also participated in two other themes dealing with 'US military attacks on Venezuela,' spending a total of $33,934.34 (approximately 5,336,000 yen) on four themes.
This account ultimately received a refund of $437,957.38 (approximately 68.87 million yen) for two themes and sold the remaining two themes for approximately $5,800 (approximately 910,000 yen), resulting in a total balance of '$409,882.03 (approximately 64 million yen) in the black.'
@0x31a56e9E690c621eD21De08Cb559e9524Cdb8eD9-1766730765984 on Polymarket
Many other users guessed the answer, and some praised him for making such a profit with such a newly created account, calling him 'amazing.' Others even suggested he might be President Trump.
Polymarket also predicts the winner of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. One user who bet for the first time at the time the winners were announced won 5 million yen when Maria Corina Machado of Venezuela won the prize. This suggests that users with a deep knowledge of Venezuela are increasingly joining the game.
What did Maria Corina Machado, winner of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, do? - GIGAZINE
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in Note, Posted by logc_nt