Why does peace negotiations fail?
The peace talks between the parties regarding Russia's invasion of Ukraine since February 24, 2022 are still in a difficult stage to reach consensus, with Russian President Vladimir Putin saying that he is 'stuck'. You can see. Professor Andrew Bram, Executive Director of the Institute for Peace and Justice, University of San Diego, where the Peacebuilding Program has been involved in peace and conflict research for over 20 years, answers the question of the news site The Conversation. It explains the difficulty of 'peace negotiations' in the form.
Why do peace talks fail? A negotiation expert answers 5 questions about the slim chances for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine
◆ 1: How often do peace negotiations fail? The reason for this is also?
According to Professor Bram, peace talks are 'usually unsuccessful.' According to a study by Uppsala University in Sweden, of the 288 disputes between 1946 and 2005, 39 (13.5%) agreed to peace, and the other one would win. It seems that the battle ended without reaching a peace agreement or victory.
However, even if a peace agreement is not reached between the parties, it is possible to reduce the casualties of civilians by temporarily suspending the war through discussions and by establishing a
◆ 2: How useful is the peace negotiations that take place during the battle?
Professor Bram replied that peace negotiations are 'greatly useful' because they lay the groundwork for an agreement to ultimately end the battle.
Ceasefire negotiations are often held when the battle is intensifying, but if the parties agree to a ceasefire and adhere to that agreement, both sides can avoid casualties. It can also create the first foundation of trust that paves the way for more difficult negotiations.
Professor Bram explains that ongoing peace talks are not an alternative to combat, but a 'strategy that runs in parallel with combat to achieve its goals.'
◆ 3: What is the biggest problem you face in peace negotiations?
Professor Bram says there are many problems, such as the violence associated with conflict and the anger and distrust between the parties that the violence creates. Negotiators need to face those who believe they have 'killed their sons and daughters.' In the case of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the United Nations estimates that more than 1842 Ukrainian civilians were killed by Russian troops, but in reality this number is believed to be higher.
In many cases, one believes that 'they are winning' and there is no motivation to respond to the negotiations, so 'unavoidable strategic reasons' are necessary for peace negotiations to take place. An example of this is Afghanistan, where the Taliban have agreed with the United States on peace on the condition that the troops withdraw, but negotiations with the Ashraf Ghani administration have not progressed and the U.S. forces will withdraw. I am in control of the whole of Afghanistan.
◆ 4: What makes the negotiator sit at the peace table?
To this question, Professor Bram replied, 'When both parties are doing damages and knowing that they cannot defeat the other militarily, the logical path to go is'negotiation'.' I am.
Basically, the negotiator's goal is to 'create a mutually beneficial agreement,' which is a solution that makes you think you've won something, sometimes with the help of a neutral intermediary. He said he will try to reach a plan.
However, it not only creates an agreement, but also brings it back to the community with anger, trauma, and grief, saying that they have reached such an agreement. Therefore, it is important to have women, community representatives, and leaders of different ethnic groups participate in the peace negotiations so that the general public can be accepted when a peace agreement is reached.
However, in many cases, as in the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, a consensus is reached by a small number of elite men and then marketed to voters in their home country.
◆ 5: Can you expect the sincerity of other participants in the peace negotiations?
Professor Bram simply says 'no.'
Participants in peace negotiations need to build some kind of cooperative relationship just by negotiating, but this relationship does not guarantee that participants will engage in negotiations in good faith. In peace talks in South Sudan, there have been cases where negotiators have been accused of 'participating to stay in luxury hotels for weeks.' In Syria, President Assad participated in peace negotiations as a public relations strategy. Other cases have been reported in which the military was accused of participating in peace talks to prepare for the next attack.
According to Professor Bram, 'good faith negotiations will only take place if it is in the best interests of the parties to reach an agreement.'
In the case of Russia and Ukraine, it was reported in March 2022 that Russia poisoned at least two Ukrainian officials and mediator Roman Abramovich. Since ancient times, it has been a diplomatic practice to 'ensure the security of peace envoys,' and Professor Bram said that the breakthrough of the practice made it difficult for peace negotiations to succeed. The Russian side has denied reports on poisons.
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