Mar 11, 2022 07:00:00

What is the report of 'Russia's invasion of Ukraine' already foreseen on January 13, 2022?

There are some reports that Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which began on February 24, 2022, 'suddenly opened', but in reality, as represented by the 2014

Crimean crisis , Ukraine-Russia Tension is a long-standing problem. Regarding the question of whether this invasion of Ukraine was really 'sudden', the report ' Possibility of Russia's invasion of Ukraine ' published by the United States' leading think tank and Center for Strategic and International Studies on January 13, 2022 When you read it, you can see that a series of events was expected with amazing accuracy.

Russia's Possible Invasion of Ukraine | Center for Strategic and International Studies
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-possible-invasion-ukraine

The report 'Potential for Russia's Invasion of Ukraine' published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies is Seth, a senior vice president of the Institute and director of an international security program specializing in defense strategy and homeland security.・ Written by G. Jones. This report written before the invasion of Ukraine recommends to the United States and NATO countries that 'we should support Ukraine receiving threatening diplomacy from Russia and prepare for the invasion', and it is better to read after the invasion of Ukraine. It feels more suggestive.

Evidence of Russia's threatening diplomacy at the time is the increase in force stationed in Yelnya , Russia, observed in December 2021. Yelnya is located in the northeastern part of the capital, Kyiv, and is close to Belarus in terms of distance. As of December 9, 2021, it has been confirmed that various army forces such as main battle tanks , self-propelled artillery , infantry fighting vehicles , multiple rocket systems , 9K720 'Iskander' , and tow guns are deployed in this Erinha. I did.

According to Jones, the ultimate goals of the Putin administration are to prevent the expansion of NATO, remove American nuclear weapons in Europe, secure the Russian sovereign state, etc. Mr. Jones said, 'In short, 30 years have passed since the collapse of the Soviet Union,' said Russia, aiming to prevent Russia from belonging to other military and economic blocks such as the EU and to seize the diplomatic and security policies of these three countries. Now, it is a conflict between the countries that once formed the

Soviet Union's constituent republics as independent sovereign states or whether Moscow will be the de facto sovereign state. '

There are six military options Russia can implement for this goal. The following are the 6 types.

1: After successful negotiations, part of the ground forces will be redeployed from the Ukrainian border and continue to support pro-Russian and anti-Ukrainian government forces in eastern Ukraine.
2: Send Russian troops under the name of 'peacekeeping army' to Luhansk Donetsk , which is effectively controlled by pro-Russian armed groups, and refuse to withdraw until the Ukrainian government fulfills the Minsk agreement .
3: Occupy Ukrainian territory east of the Dnieper River and treat it as a trump card for negotiations or transfer it as Russian territory. The following is an illustration of this.

4: Incorporate Ukraine territory east of the Dnieper River and territory facing the Black Sea into Russian territory to economically isolate Ukraine.
5: Occupy only the territory facing the Black Sea, cut off the trading network on the sea side of Ukraine and at the same time cut off the freshwater supply. The following is an illustration of this.

6: Occupy the whole of Ukraine and declare a new slab allies consisting of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus together with Belarus.

In each military option, Jones first launched a cyberattack to undermine Ukrainian military command and control systems, public communications and power networks, followed by air strikes and missiles on the Ukrainian air force and air defense systems. We expect to launch an attack and secure air superiority . In fact, a large-scale cyber attack was confirmed on February 24, 2022, when the Russian military invasion began, and attacks on air defense systems have become a reality.

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Mr. Jones also touched on 'Russia's prospects for success,' which basically favors the Russian side, which has an overwhelming advantage in possession, but is fatal to Russian logistics. He argues that there is a problem and that the morale of the Ukrainian side can influence the battlefield. Is composed of conscripted soldiers, the longer the war is, the more dead the war is, the more morale spreads from general soldiers to the Russian people. '' The more dead the war, the more. The proportion of untrained reserves and conscripts will increase, reducing the cohesiveness of the unit. In addition, this diminished cohesiveness will lead to domestic morale. ' Regarding this point as well, an analysis has been reported that the invasion is actually delayed due to the low morale of the Russian army and the problem of logistics, and it can be said that Mr. Jones' prediction was ahead of the future.

Also, in the latter half of the report, there is a chapter 'Actions that Western countries should take at the beginning of the war', and in this chapter, 'Measures to separate the Russian bank from SWIFT ', 'Granting of various strategic supplies to Ukraine free of charge' Providing information on communication disruption operations and information on various Russian attacks and the location of major troops '' Economic support for Ukrainian NATO countries for expected Russian gas supply suspension measures '' Ukrainian Russia Implementation of public diplomacy and media broadcasting to provide accurate information to the entire world, including 'Measures to put diplomatic pressure on Belarus to refuse cooperation with the Russian side' 'Documentation of war crimes in Russia's Ukraine', etc. Is recommended.