Jun 02, 2021 06:00:00

How long does it take to recover from the economic blow caused by the new coronavirus infection?

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) released its economic forecast on May 31, 2021. The economic forecast summarizes the economic recovery situation that was stagnant due to the effects of the new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) and the forecast of GDP growth in each country.

Editorial: No ordinary recovery | OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2021 Issue 1: Preliminary version | OECD iLibrary
https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/edfbca02-en/index.html?itemId=0/content/publication/edfbca02-en

The OECD's economic outlook is bright, but reconstruction is not uniform-OECD

https://www.oecd.org/tokyo/newsroom/oecd-sees-brighter-economic-prospects-but-an-uneven-recovery-japanese-version.htm

According to the OECD, the global average GDP growth rate in 2020 was minus 3.5%. In contrast, the 2021 GDP growth estimate has been revised upward from 4.2% announced in December 2020 to 5.8%. In addition, the global average GDP growth rate is projected to reach 4.4% in 2022. The OECD explained that the reason for the upward revision of the forecast was 'because the US government-led stimulus package will improve the US economy.'

The table below shows the global average and GDP growth forecasts for 2020 and 2021 and 2022 for G20 countries released by the OECD. Looking at the table, we can see that countries such as Australia, the United States, Europe, and Japan are expected to grow GDP at a pace higher than the world average after 2021, but in South Korea, Argentina, and Saudi Arabia, the pace of GDP growth is expected to be higher. You can also see that it is well below the world average.

The OECD

also predicts how long it will take for real GDP growth per capita in G20 countries to recover to pre-epidemic levels of COVID-19. Looking at the graph below (green: developed countries, red: emerging countries), China and Turkey have recovered by the end of 2020, and the seven countries of South Korea, Russia, the United States, Japan, Germany, India, and Indonesia are 2021. You can see that it is expected to recover during the year. In contrast, Saudi Arabia and South Africa are projected to recover real GDP per capita until 2024, while Argentina is projected to recover only in 2026.

'16 months after the pandemic, many countries have successfully dealt with the COVID-19 epidemic, but emerging and low-income countries have received enough vaccines,' the OECD said. In addition, these countries are under fundamental threat to the economic recovery because they have less policy capacity to support activities to control the COVID-19 pandemic than developed countries. ' He points out that the period varies from country to country.