Did the 2012 predictions of '15 technologies that kids born this year will never use' turn out to be accurate?
Technology advances at a rapid pace, and it's possible that technologies and devices that were widely used just a few years ago are now largely obsolete. Avram Piltch, editor-in-chief of technology-related online media
15 Technologies I Thought My Son Would Never Use | Tom's Hardware
https://www.tomshardware.com/opinion/15-technology-predictions-how-they-did
When his son was born in April 2012, Piltch published an article predicting 15 technologies his son would never use. Nine years later, in 2021, Piltch is reflecting on whether his predictions were correct.
◆01: Wired Internet
In 2012, as multiple home mobile Wi-Fi plans began to emerge, Piltch predicted that within a few years, Internet service providers (ISPs) would stop running fiber optics to customers' homes and instead provide home broadband via mobile phones. However, at the time of writing, wired internet was still the norm, and the fifth-generation mobile communications system (5G) was just beginning to be introduced. While 5G may become mainstream by the time Piltch's son enters college, his 9-year-old son remembers the days of wired internet.
◆02: A dedicated camera specializing in photo and video recording functions
'In 2012, I predicted that point-and-shoot cameras and video cameras were on the brink of extinction and that my son would never use them. This turned out to be correct,' Piltch said. While Piltch's mother uses a Panasonic camera, his son has never used a camera specifically for photography.
◆03: Landline phone
Mr. Piltch's household used a landline until 2012, but his wife canceled the landline and started using a mobile phone while she was pregnant with their son, so his son has never used a landline at home. However, there are still households that use landlines on a daily basis, and many companies continue to install landlines within their offices. Piltch says that his son may use a landline within his company after he gets a job in the future.
◆04: Computers that start up slowly
In 2012, Piltch predicted that by the time his son was old enough to use a computer, new operating systems would be adopted, computers would no longer require reboots to install updates and patches, and would only take a few seconds to boot. However, this prediction was wrong because operating system improvements and the spread of SSDs were slower than expected, and his son started using a PC at an earlier age than expected. For several years, his son has been using a PC that takes about 30 seconds to boot and requires a reboot to install OS updates.
◆05: PC window operating system
By the time his son started using a PC, Piltch believed that the 'dragable, resizable window' had disappeared from PC graphical user interfaces (GUIs) , and that touch-friendly UIs would become mainstream not only on mobile devices but also on PCs. In 2012, Windows 8 also adopted a UI design that was conscious of touch operation, but touch operation on PCs was not as well received by users as initially expected, so window-based operation systems remain the norm on PCs. This trend was a blessing for Piltch, who said, 'Everyone in the industry realized that what works on mobile devices is not necessarily ideal for PCs.'
◆06: Hard Disk Drive (HDD)
In 2012, Piltch predicted that his son's first laptop would not be available without an SSD. Since then, he's been using SSDs, and every PC his son has used at home has had one. The only devices his son has used to date with an HDD are the Xbox One and the PS3. Even if his son were to buy his own laptop in the future, he expects it to be an SSD model.
◆07: Movie Theater
Due to factors such as the availability of home theaters, the inconvenience of movie theater systems with limited release schedules, and the cost and hassle of movie theater invitation tickets, Piltch believed in 2012 that movie theaters would soon disappear. However, although movie theater attendance dropped sharply in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, movie theaters have not disappeared at the time of writing. Nevertheless, Piltch argued that as a result of people learning about the comfort of spending time at home during the pandemic, movie theaters may disappear by the time his son becomes an adult.
◆08: Mouse
Piltch, who once predicted that touchscreen operation on mobile devices would be adopted for PCs, also thought that PC mice would become obsolete. However, mice are still widely used for PC operation, and his son actually uses a mouse to operate his PC. Piltch admits that this prediction was 'hilariously wrong.'
◆09: 3D Glasses
As of 2012, home entertainment using 3D glasses was gaining attention, and 3D-compatible TVs were appearing on the market. Piltch found wearing 3D glasses troublesome, and new 3D technologies that didn't require glasses were emerging. He predicted, 'By the time my son was 10 years old, many viewers would be able to enjoy the 3D experience simultaneously without the need for glasses.' However, the 3D market was virtually destroyed, regardless of 3D glasses, and for reasons unrelated to his prediction, his son never used 3D glasses.
◆10: Remote control
Remote controls, which use infrared light to control electronic devices, can be a pain because they don't work if there's an obstacle in the way or can easily get lost. Piltch predicted that by the time his son started elementary school, remote controls would be obsolete and replaced by smartphone apps, gestures, and voice commands. However, many electronic devices still come with remote controls, so his prediction proved wrong.
◆11: Desktop PC
'The worst prediction I made in 2012,' Piltch said, 'was that PC vendors would stop producing most desktop PCs within six years.' This was due to the rapid improvement in laptop performance, which narrowed the performance and price gap between desktop and laptop PCs. Even at the time of writing, there are still people who buy desktop PCs for gaming and advanced work. While the share of desktop PCs in consumer PC sales has declined from 20% in 2013 to 13% in 2020, the number of people building their own desktop PCs has increased in recent years, with 1.7 million PC cases sold in 2020.
◆12: Push phone number
Piltch predicted that by the time his son reached high school, online messaging and video chat would be the norm for communication with friends, and he wouldn't even share his phone number with them. In fact, this trend has spread faster than expected. At the time of writing, his 9-year-old son regularly communicates with friends and family using Facebook Messenger, and has never used a phone number to contact anyone.
◆13: Watching prime-time TV
In 2012, Piltch predicted that the popularity of streaming services and time-shifted viewing would lead to a decline in the '
◆14: FAX
Piltch predicted that his son would never use a fax machine, and in fact, in the past nine years, his son has never used one. However, he said that fax machines are still used in some businesses and financial transactions, so fax machines have not disappeared from the world.
◆15: Optical disc
In a 2012 article, Piltch predicted that 'major entertainment companies will stop selling CDs and Blu-rays by the time my son is 10 years old,' but at the time of writing, it's unlikely that most companies will stop selling CDs and Blu-rays by 2022. While streaming content is actually more convenient to watch than Blu-rays, physical optical discs have a sense of 'actual ownership,' so Piltch believes optical discs will continue to be around for some time to come.
From this series of predictions, Piltch commented that 'high-tech things aren't necessarily the easiest to use,' and that 'once established technology is established, it takes a long time for it to completely disappear.' Also, the speed at which children learn can never be underestimated, and Piltch's son said he was exposed to PCs from a very early age.
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