Did the 2012 forecast of '15 technologies that children born this year never use' hit the mark?
Technological advances are rapid, and it is possible that technologies and devices that were widely used only a few years ago are now rarely used.
15 Technologies I Thought My Son Would Never Use | Tom's Hardware
https://www.tomshardware.com/opinion/15-technology-predictions-how-they-did
When his son was born in April 2012, Piltch published an article predicting '15 technologies he would never use.' In 2021, nine years after that, Piltch looks back on whether the predictions at that time were correct.
◆ 01: Wired internet
With multiple home mobile Wi-Fi plans beginning to emerge in 2012, Piltch said, 'Within a few years, Internet service providers (ISPs) will stop pulling fiber optics into their customers' homes. We will provide home broadband via mobile phones. ' However, at the time of writing the article, it was still common to provide the Internet by wire, and the introduction of the 5th generation mobile communication system (5G) has just begun. In the future, 5G may become mainstream by the time Piltch's son enters university, but at the time of writing the article, the 9-year-old son remembers the age of wired Internet.
◆ 02: Dedicated camera specializing in photography and video shooting functions
'In 2012, I predicted that autofocus and camcorders were dying and my son wouldn't use them,' Piltch said. I did. ' Piltch's mother uses a Panasonic camera, but her son has never used a camera that specializes in shooting functions.
◆ 03: Landline phone
Piltch's family used landlines until 2012, but his son also used his landline at home as he canceled his landline and started using his cellphone while his son was pregnant. I have never used it. However, some households still use landlines on a daily basis, and many companies continue to install landlines in-house. Piltch said his son could also use his company's landline after getting a job in the future.
◆ 04: Computer that starts slowly
In 2012, Piltch predicted that when his son used a computer, a new operating system would be adopted, eliminating the need for a reboot to install updates and patches, and taking only a few seconds to boot. That thing. However, this was not expected because the OS improvement and SSD spread were slower than expected, and the age at which my son started using PCs was earlier than expected. My son has been using a PC that takes about 30 seconds to boot for several years and needs to be rebooted to install the OS update.
◆ 05: PC window operation system
Piltch believes that by the time his son starts using a PC, there will be no 'dragging and resizing windows' from the PC's graphical user interface (GUI), and touch-friendly UI will become mainstream not only on mobile devices but also on PCs. Was there. In 2012, Windows 8 also adopted a UI design that was conscious of touch operations, but since touch operations on PCs were not welcomed by users as initially expected, operation systems using windows are still the mainstream on PCs. is. This trend was also appreciated by Piltch, saying, 'Everyone in the industry has realized that what works on mobile devices is not ideal for PCs.'
◆ 06: Hard disk drive (HDD)
In 2012, Piltch predicted that 'when my son gets his first laptop, he can't buy it without an SSD.' Mr. Piltch has adopted SSD since that time, and it is said that all the PCs that my son used at home so far are also equipped with SSD. In addition, it seems that the only 'devices equipped with HDD' that my son has used so far are Xbox One and PS3. In the future, even if his son buys his own laptop, he will of course choose an SSD-equipped model, Piltch said.
◆ 07: Movie theater
As of 2012, Piltch said, 'Movie theaters will disappear soon,' due to factors such as the enrichment of home theaters, the inconvenience of movie theater systems with limited release schedules, and the cost and hassle of movie theater invitation tickets. He said he was thinking. However, in 2020, the number of movie theaters dropped sharply due to the pandemic of the new coronavirus infection (COVID-19), but the movie theaters have not disappeared at the time of writing the article. Still, Piltch argued that the cinema could disappear by the time his son grew up, as a result of the pandemic that people knew about the comfort of spending time at home.
◆ 08: Mouse
Piltch, who once predicted that 'touch operations on mobile devices will also be used on PCs,' thought that PC mice would no longer be used. However, the mouse is still widely used in PC operation, and Mr. Piltch admits that this prediction was 'laughingly wrong' because his son actually uses the mouse to operate the PC. ..
◆ 09: 3D glasses
As of 2012, home entertainment using 3D glasses was attracting attention, and 3D-compatible TVs appeared on the market. Mr. Piltch is troublesome to wear 3D glasses, and new 3D technology that does not use 3D glasses has appeared, so 'By the time my son is 10 years old, there are many without using 3D glasses. Viewers will be able to enjoy the 3D experience at the same time. ' However, in reality, the 3D market is almost destroyed regardless of 3D glasses, and it seems that my son has never used 3D glasses for unexpected reasons.
◆ 10: Remote control
Remote controls that use infrared rays to operate electronic devices are often troublesome because they do not work or the remote control itself is lost if there are obstacles. As a result, Piltch predicted that by the time his son entered elementary school, the remote control would be obsolete and replaced by operations, gestures and voice commands via smartphone apps. However, many electronic devices still come with remote controls, which is a disappointment.
◆ 11: Desktop PC
'The worst prediction I made in 2012,' said Piltch, 'PC vendors will stop producing most desktop PCs within six years.' The reason was that the performance of notebook PCs was rapidly improving and the gap between performance and price between desktop PCs was narrowing, but even at the time of writing the article, desktop PCs for games and advanced work There are people who buy. The ratio of desktop PCs to consumer PC sales has decreased from 20% in 2013 to 13% in 2020, but in recent years it seems that more and more people are building their own desktop PCs. It seems that 1.7 million PC cases were sold in 2020.
◆ 12: Push phone number
Piltch predicted that 'by the time my son is in high school, online messages and video chat will be the mainstream of contact with friends, not even sharing phone numbers with friends.' In reality, this trend spread faster than expected, and at the time of writing the article, my 9-year-old son used Facebook Messenger to interact with friends and family on a daily basis, so he used his phone number to contact someone. There is no such thing.
◆ 13: Watching 'Prime Time' TV
In 2012, Piltch predicted that the trend of streaming services and time-shifted viewing would eliminate the habit of watching TV
◆ 14: FAX
Piltch predicted that his son would never use fax, and said he had never actually used fax in the last nine years. However, Mr. Piltch says that faxes have not disappeared from the world because faxes are used in some companies and financial transactions.
◆ 15: Optical disc
In a 2012 article, Piltch predicted that 'a major entertainment company would stop selling CDs and Blu-rays by the time his son was 10 years old,' but at the time of writing most of them by 2022. There is no possibility that companies will stop selling CDs and Blu-rays. Although it is actually more convenient to watch the distributed content than Blu-ray, Mr. Piltch will continue to use optical discs for a while because the physical optical discs have a feeling of 'actually owning'. I don't think it will go away.
From a series of predictions, Piltch learned that ''high-tech' is not always the easiest to use' and that 'it will take a long time for the technology once established to disappear completely'. Comment that you can get. He also said that the speed at which children learn is by no means underestimated, and Piltch's son touched the PC very early on.
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