What is the 'future of communication' that SF scenery owner Arthur C. Clark predicted?

by Melanie Schwolert

Arthur C. Clarke , a science fiction writer born in the UK, is known for his work as " The End of Childhood " and " The Travel of the Universe in 2001 ". An anticipation about the future of communication that such Clark put on the May 1977 issue of computer magazine " Creative Computing " was released on the web. At that time it was only a few years ago when the world's first cell phone call was made, but the sharp expectations that Clark showed up as a scientific commentator are wonderful.

Arthur C. Clarke: Communications in the Second Century of the Telephone (1977) - Paleotronic Magazine
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Clark says "About animals to communicate" about humans. It is said that people are creatures who want "information" as much as water and food, and that advances in communication technology spread quickly. In just one year after Aleksander Graham Bell obtained a telephone patent in 1876, the phone was exported from the United States to Japan, and in 1878 a telephone company was born in various parts of the United States.

The news that a device called "phone" that a person in a remote place could talk was delivered to England, which crossed the Atlantic through the submarine cable. At that time, the post office's chief engineer asked, "Is there a practical value for the invention of this phone?", "You may need a phone for Americans, but you do not need it in England I heard that there are many postal staff here.

If you look back on the past since the late age, there are many people who think that "telephone is popular all over the world". However, Clark said, "Before laughing at this Victorian people, if you lived 100 years ago, ask yourself whether you could have predicted that the phone is so popular in the world after 100 years Tell me, could you predict 100 years ago if there is a telephone at all homes and all offices, making the basis of the civilized world and having one phone per 10 people of all humanity? " , Said that the spreading speed of the phone was amazing.

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And Clarke said that the technology concerning communication will definitely develop rapidly in the future and said, "Keyboard and visual display, a device equipped with a TV camera for high-quality calling" is the ideal communication device .

Also, Clark is considering a system that can input contents spoken by the verbal rather than a keyboard, but considering human problems such as privacy and noise problems, doubtful of accent and hangover, the voice It seems that the recognition device was considered to be very complicated. However, at the same time, "Most of us are tapping the keyboard by 2001, but as far as the speed of technology development is concerned, by the year 2076 you can enter the content as you said in your mouth "As soon as the input in speech recognition was put to practical use, it made me think.

Clark thinks that "When the product reaches a certain technical level, changes after that will be focused on the style", and as with chairs, tables, beds, tableware, the material is I anticipate that the basic design will not change so much as it will change. Thousands of years before the refinement of chair, table and tableware was necessary, but as for the bicycle about 1st century, the radio receiver was stable in half a century and the basic structure became stable, the communication device It will be in a stable period.

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Clarke predicts that 95% of white-collar work will be possible without leaving home, thanks to the evolution of communication devices with not only telephones but also visual communication functions by display. It also says that it may be difficult for white collar workers to complete their jobs almost at home while the people born in 1977 are alive.

A few years ago when announcing the forecast of 1977, Clark seemed to have created the slogan "Let's communicate, not commuting." Clark travels from the house to the office even if it is unbearable even for 30 seconds, considering the cost of people traveling and the energy resources consumed, it is better to move the information and data by developing the communication system to lower costs It was said that he had the idea that it was.

Clark thought that a new communication device would have memory to record phone content and messages, but I also thought that face-to-face chat was essential. Then, the problem of the time difference that "about one-third of the world is always asleep" emerged, arguing that "the communication network of the 21st century may abolish the scattered time difference all over the world" It is.

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Clark says that new communication devices have virtually unlimited possibilities as entertainment and "information-gathering devices", and himself has completely become an "information addict" during the Second World War I am doing. With the development of communication systems and devices, Clark said that he could learn about the various events occurring on the planet in near real time.

Also, with the development of technology, documents and books such as newspapers are "digitized", the amount of paper used decreases, has the merit of protecting the forest, and it will not leave huge amounts of paper books in descendants Clark argued, too. If you digitize the encyclopedia it is expected that the encyclopedia collection will be recorded on a device with display and keyboard of the same size as a normal hard cover book and it will be able to update it every few months I will.

Clark will eventually not only display the visual information on the display, but also the three-dimensional hologram will be projected, "If you do not touch it is whether it is a physical presence or not a holograph that is in front of you I do not know "level. If this technology advances, the world where nobody finally needs to leave the house may come.

And, when Clark makes a portable communication device like a wrist watch, it is easy to establish "a law that makes it illegal to turn off the power of the receiver so that the boss can summon you at any time" I can imagine that. Meanwhile, if it is possible to emit SOS with a portable communication device such as an accident on the mountain, a single accident on a freeway less expressway, an old man who collapsed in the house, the lives of many people will be saved It is.

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Clark also mentioned about the future world in which communication devices and computers developed, and expects "robots will replace 99% of simple labor without thinking". In that world only people with high education can get to work and there is a possibility that many people left behind by the change of the times may be in need. Clarke argued that pornographic content may be useful so as to appease these discontented layers and not to let other consumers consume time at a cheap price anyhow.

While pointing out the risk of people without education being left behind in the times, Clark is also predicting that education gaps will decrease with the development of communication devices. In order to compensate for the shortage of teachers far away from the city, it is possible to broadcast educational content through a screen such as a television, and this attempt is far less costly than actually dispatching teachers to remote locations Thing. Clark suggests that the cost required for broadcasting educational content is on the order of a few dollars per student and is an unprecedented investment in future health and well-being, peace.

Clark touches on this system about the concept of satellite communication which he himself was involved during the Second World War. At that time many countries, including the United States, invested heavily in artificial satellite communications and it seemed that satellites might be connected all over the world as railways and telegraphs connected.

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And Clark spreads communication to outer space, not just on the earth. From 1977, from the time it was only 100 years ago when the phone was developed, people could not talk for just a few tens of meters away. Within a few decades, it was possible for a conversation with people in all places of the earth if the phone was passing.

And by the Apollo plan , mankind has advanced into the moon, reaching the place where it takes more than 1 second to reach light from the earth for the first time in history. At that time, the communication delay between the earth and the moon was about 2 and a half hours, and many people might have felt that "there is less delay than imagination". But Clark says, "The delay that seems to be insignificant is deemed to be doubtful as to whether the average person can feel comfortable in conversation with self-control while feeling a delay of two and a half seconds" It may cause obstacles to the problem.

People will soon seek out resources and advance into extra-terrestrial planets, which may eventually advance beyond the solar system. When thinking about that future, Clark asserts that the limitation of the speed of light will restore people back to a disconnected community where people can not communicate again in real time. We developed a prediction that the same state as the past human beings who lived far away each other will be born between planets this time.

by Jakub Novacek