It may be a mistake to "look for a star that looks like the earth" to search for intellectual living bodies outside the earth

One of human dreams is to find intellectual life forms outside the earth. Although there may be a topic such as "There was an environment that looked like the Earth," there is a movie released that the condition of "Earth-like" may actually be wrong.

Aliens: Are We Looking in the Wrong Place? - YouTube


Sometimes I think that there is no other creature besides creatures known on the earth.


At this time, we will try to find "the Earth-like Stars".


That's why human beings and other living things are on earth ... ...


It is because there is the idea that there may be living things there if an earth type planet is found.


There are hundreds of billions of galaxies in observable universe, each galaxy is composed of 1 trillion stars and star groups. Because there are several stars in one star system ......


Together, the number of stars that are present is a terrible number that is over 1 垓 (10 20's). If there is only this, it is not amusing that there is a star whose intellectual life forms exist, that is the creatures.


From physics and statistics it is suggested that intellectual life forms that may exist elsewhere are somewhat different from humans.


More precisely, "they" are larger than us and are thought to live in a small group with small planets.


In the absence of other intellectual life forms, it seems that it is impossible to measure at all what other existence is ... ...


Here comes outBayesian estimationis.


When taking statistics within a group, there is a big difference between "representative individual" and "representative group".


For example, taking the population on the earth as an example, China, India, America, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan and Nigeria alone cover over 50% of the total population.


However, even if half of the population of the whole nation or region on the planet is combined, it will be less than 6 million people.


In religion, 2.2 billion people are Christians, then 1.6 billion people are Muslims, the rest believes in other religions.


Scientology,Wicker, Zoroastrianism, most religions are "minority" in terms of the number of people.


As yet another example, the population of football's Premier League fans will be over 50% of the total with only four teams - Manchester United, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea.


Even if half of the teams match the number of its fans, it is about several million people and it does not reach the top four teams very much.


That is, "the group with individuals with median value" and "median value of group" do not agree. When turned inside out, when groups are not the same size, most individuals are considered to belong to a larger group than other groups.


When you do not know which group you belong now, it is highly likely that you are a majority group.


For example, when there is a person who says "I do not know my blood type", that person's blood type is likely to be O + (37%) or A + (33%).


If we bring this story to the frame of "intelligent life forms", we do not know what kind of humanity the human being belongs to.


Therefore, from the above assumption, I think that "humanity belongs to the largest group among intelligent life forms".


That means that human beings can expect to have more population than other species (intellectual life forms).


From here we will think about "other species". First of all, in order to live, space is absolutely necessary.


The names of China, India, etc. came out in the population, but countries with many of these population tend to have a wide land area.


That means that the earth in which 7 billion people live is considered to be larger than the stars with other species.


Also, if the size of each individual is small, the space required to survive becomes smaller.


Even in the space where ants have 100 trillion animals, only about 700 thousand can be found if they are about the size of an elephant.


That means that human beings with many populations may be smaller than other species. And from the whole perspective, humanity may be "an oddball".


The presence or absence of energy leads to an increase in population. There is something equivalent to the sun in other intellectual living bodies, as we have the sun, but perhaps it is possible that our sun is closer and stronger and brighter. Even the atmosphere is as clear as the stars can see the stars, other stars may be muddy.


It is based on "prediction" to the last, but also based on physics furthermore, accuracy can be fulfilled. According to that prediction, there are less than 20 million intellectual life forms present. The majority of stars with intellectual life forms are about 80% of the earth's size. And the intellectual living body weight is about 350 kg, it is thought that there are about polar bears living on the earth.


That is, it is more intelligent to search for "stars that look somewhat smaller, darker, faint than the Earth" rather than searching "Are somewhere close to the Earth's like the planet where intelligent life forms are likely to live"? It is said that it is an approach.


To put it briefly, we are a Manchester United fan of the universe and it seems that we are looking for a fan of AFC Wimbledon. Manchester United is called "Club with the most fans in the world among all sports", the number of which is more than 600 million. On the other hand, AFC Wimbledon belongs to Football League 2, which is equivalent to the League Division 4, with the largest number of spectators mobilized by 4560 in one game.