Even though the broad universe, the theory that intellectual life forms may be only humanity

Many people believe that intellectual living organisms exist somewhere in the vast universe, which is also a certain theory. However, in the new research, it is pointed out that there is sufficient possibility that 'there are no intellectual life forms other than human beings in the universe'.

Dissolving the Fermi Paradox
(PDF file) https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf

New model predicts that we're probably the only advanced civilization in the observable universe - Universal-Sci
https://www.universal-sci.com/headlines/2018/6/22/new-model-predicts-that-were-probably-the-only-advanced-civilization-in-the-observable-universe

When exploring the theme "Are extraterrestrial intelligent life forms exist?", " Drake equations " invented by astronomer Frank Drake in the 1960s will be taken up. The equation of Drake is a calculation formula to pull out the number of extraterrestrial life spaces distributed in the universe, "The number of stars that are born in a year in the galaxy where human beings are in" × "Probability that a star has a planetary system" x " Average number of planets in the state that life can exist, possessed by the star system "×" Probability of life actually occurring under the existence of life "×" Probability of the evolved life to evolve to an intellectual level " × "probability of intelligent life forms communicating with stars" × "duration of technical civilization".

By applying the predictions from scientific knowledge to each parameter using the Drake equation, it is predicted that "there should be 100 intelligent life forms in the galaxy". It can be said that this is a unique argument of the "universe" scale, which has such a vastness and length of time that it is difficult to imagine.

However, when considering "There is an extraterrestrial intelligent life form," Fermi's paradox "is also certain to come across. As a physicist Enriko Fermi questioned, "There is a high possibility that an alien (extraterrestrial intelligent life) exists, why will not you encounter the alien?" Asked many simple questions A scientist has tried to explain it.

About these Drake equations and Fermi's paradox, three prominent researchers such as Dr. Andersen Sandberg of Oxford University FHI have published a paper entitled "Dissolving the Fermi Paradox". Three researchers are conducting research with the aim of encouraging reconsideration of each parameter by incorporating the latest knowledge such as genetic transfer model into Drake 's equation.

"When discussing the equation of Drake, we often see annotations such as" This parameter is uncertain, but we will use a guess value for a while. "Then, the results issued based on speculation But this result is merely shown as a fixed number as a number and is not expressed as including uncertainty.This is often misleading.Wor worse, the equation of Drake Is very vulnerable to bias If you think that you want to give positive results to the existence of intellectual life forms, you can get the desired result by manipulating uncertain estimates of some parameters It will be possible, "says Dr. Sandberg.

Therefore, Dr. Sandberg et al. Do not focus on the numerical value itself given by the Drake equations, but think about the maximum and minimum values ​​of the parameters obtained based on the current scientific knowledge, If we tried to randomly select and give estimated values, it was not impossible to derive the conclusion that "no intellectual life forms exist outside the earth". Depending on the combination of the parameters, it is possible to eliminate Fermi's paradox by the conclusion that "there are no intellectual life forms other than the Earth, so we have not encountered the alien."

Of course, the main point of this paper is not to lead the conclusion that "there is no extraterrestrial life form". In order to explore the intellectual life forms, there are still many scientific refinements to be refined, and it has become a sounding reminder that mankind must keep learning.