"I cafe slate" which estimates the winning percentage of the team by estimating Splatoon's festival in real time

Cover the ground and wall with ink guns and rollers, compete for painted area Nintendo Wii U's game software "Splatoon」では、通常のルールの他に「ごはん派」「パン派」などお題に沿って2チームに分かれて戦う「Fes"Will be held once a month for 24 hours. The team's vote rate and winning percentage will be announced after the festival, but on the official websiteBattle resultUnofficial service to calculate the faction's winning percentage in real time based on "I cafe slate"Is on sale.

I cafe slate
https://fest.ink/

When you visit the top page of "Ikafesurate", the festival held up to now is displayed in a list. To see the winning percentage of Fes, click "Miru" button on the left side of the festival name. In addition, some characters on the page have a splatoon-like font "Ikamodoki"Is used.


Trial 2nd Festival "Red fox vs green raccoonI wrote the winning / losing rate page of "


"Estimated winning percentage" is displayed with a bar graph at the top of the page, and it seems that the "green Race Team" stood at 52.7%.


Below the estimated winning percentage, "short-term winning percentage graph" every 20 minutes and "long-term winning percentage graph" based on the short-term winning percentage are displayed. The number of data samples of the 2nd festival was 10,232, and I created cafe slate@ Feet_hinaAccording to Mr. says, "There are considerably few errors with respect to the number of all games, so it seems that there are quite a few errors. In reality, it is thought that there are many games from evening to night, the mounds are held less Although it is impossible to estimate the number of games as a whole, we have compiled the assumption that "the same game number has been forced" unavoidably. Therefore, it seems that there are considerable errors. "


On the top of the page there is an "update button" to update the data when viewing the festival data being held.


It is also possible to switch on / off automatic updating of data. In the initial state it is designed to be automatically updated every 10 minutes.


Automatic update interval can be set from 2 minutes to 60 minutes.


When you click "Overlap", the winning percentage graphs of the two teams are displayed in a state of overlapping, and in the second festival, "the time when the green raccoon team dominated was longer" was visually I understand.


I will also look at other festival results. The 1st festival "Dinner vs bread"It is said that the page has not totaled the data of what is being made, and nothing is displayed.


The 3rd Festival's "Lemon tea vs. milk teaIt seems that the milk tea faction was dominated by about 10% from beginning to end.


The 4th Festival held on August 22nd and 23rd "Grasshopper vs. ant"When I looked at the graph, the winning percentage and the graph were not yet displayed before the festival was held.


When the fest starts at 12 pm on August 22, the latest battle result and festival contribution ranking appeared on the "Fest" page of Splatoon official website ......


After that, when looking at "I cafe slate", estimated probability of winning, short-term and long-term winning percentage graphs began to be generated. The error is about plus or minus 2%.


The color of the graph conforms to the team color for each festival, but by clicking the ink button at the top of the graph it is possible to change it to two colors, red and green.


In addition, "Ikafesurate" is open source, and the source code is published on GitHub.

Fetus-hina / fest.ink · GitHub
https://github.com/fetus-hina/fest.ink