The social singularity, when humans will no longer be able to handle the speed of AI evolution, will occur on July 18, 2034.
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By applying multiple measurements of AI evolution to a mathematical model, engineer Cam Pedersen has predicted that the ' singularity,' a point at which AI surpasses human intelligence and brings about rapid changes to society, will occur on July 18, 2034.
The Singularity will Occur on a Tuesday - Cam Pedersen
https://campedersen.com/singularity
Pedersen pointed out, 'Most people assume that the evolution of AI is exponential, but that is a mistake.' For the exponential function 'f(t) = a * e bt ,' for f(t) to approach infinity, t also needs to be infinite, that is, eternal time. Therefore, Pedersen performed his calculations using a hyperbolic model with a vertical asymptote that reaches infinity within a finite time.
The date 'July 18, 2034' was derived from the results of independent regression analyses of five indicators: the MMLU score, a benchmark that measures the performance of large-scale language models; the number of output tokens per dollar (approximately 156 yen); the time between model releases; the number of papers on 'emergence' in the arXiv repository of unpeer-reviewed research; and the code sharing rate on Copilot.
The analysis showed that while technical indicators such as pure AI capabilities and costs actually improved linearly, the number of arXiv papers, which symbolizes human interest and excitement in AI's emergent behavior, showed a clear hyperbolic peak. Pedersen argues that the goodness of fit ( R² ) of this single indicator was maximized at 02:52:52.170 UTC on July 18, 2034.
Pedersen believes that July 18, 2034, is not the date when AI will acquire infinite physical capabilities, but rather the moment of the 'social singularity,' when humans will no longer be able to cope with the speed at which AI will evolve.
Pedersen's 'social singularity' refers to the moment when the speed of surprises caused by AI exceeds the human ability to process and adapt to them. The key point of this concept is that the main cause of this acceleration is not the improvement in machine performance itself, but rather human psychological reactions to emergent behavior, such as attention and anxiety. Pedersen argues that this phenomenon is already becoming a reality as of 2026, ahead of the technological singularity predicted for 2034.
by Francesco Foianesi
For example, the labor market is seeing job cuts based on future potential rather than merit, with 1.1 million layoffs announced for 2025, including those due to AI. Public institutions are also unable to keep up with this pace, with legislation currently being drafted addressing issues that are already several years old. As a result, global trust in AI has fallen to 56%. Furthermore, psychological concerns about becoming obsolete are also on the rise, with 60% of American workers believing that AI will take away their jobs.
Pedersen concludes that the essence of the social singularity is not that AI will achieve superintelligence, but that humans will lose the ability to make consistent collective decisions about machines.
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