Global notebook PC shipments are expected to grow 4.9% in 2025 after a long slump, but President-elect Trump's negative impact

According to a forecast by TrendForce , a Taiwanese research firm, the global notebook PC market is expected to recover at a gradual pace in 2024, and then continue to grow in 2024 and 2025. While some analysts believe that AI-enabled notebook PCs will have an impact on the notebook PC market, TrendForce denies the impact of AI-enabled notebook PCs and explains the reasons for the expected market growth.

Global Notebook Shipments Expected to Grow by 4.9% in 2025, Business Demand Emerges as a Key Driver, Says TrendForce
https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20241125-12376.html

The PC market has been shrinking since around 2020, and in the first quarter of 2023 it recorded its lowest level ever, down 28.7% year-on-year. The cause was thought to be the long-standing recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. On the other hand, according to a report by market research firm IDC, the global PC market in the first quarter of 2024 has recovered from its slump and turned to growth due to factors such as the calming of inflation.

PC shipments in the first quarter of 2024 will finally return to pre-pandemic levels, overcoming China's sluggish demand and turning to positive growth - GIGAZINE

The notebook PC market has also been expected to be more cautious as both corporate and consumer purchases remain sluggish due to global layoffs and economic and political uncertainty. However, as years of negative factors subside and interest rate cuts improve capital liquidity, the notebook PC market is expected to recover in 2025, with annual growth in commercial notebook PC shipments expected to exceed 7%, according to TrendForce.

TrendForce also predicts that the consumer market will become more stable in 2024, with aggressive promotions driving sales of entry-level models and brands focusing on high-value, high-margin models. Although the projected growth rate of consumer notebook PC shipments is expected to be slower than that of the commercial market at 3%, TrendForce noted that the 'product mix,' which refers to the combination of products and product lines offered by companies, will be significantly optimized, which will have an impact on market growth.

Below is a graph of notebook PC shipments shown by TrendForce. Green indicates shipments, red indicates year-on-year change, 2024 is expected value, and 2025 is forecast value. The graph predicts that in 2024, it will increase by 3.9% from the lowest in 2023, and in 2025, it will increase by another 4.9% to 182.6 million units.

A major factor believed to be the recovery of the notebook PC market is the end of service for Windows 10. Support for Windows 10 is scheduled to end on October 14, 2025, so it is expected that there will be a large demand for upgrades, especially for commercial devices.

Changes in the notebook PC market are also believed to be influenced by the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States. Trump has advocated an 'America First' policy and has declared that he will raise import tariffs. TrendForce warns that this could have a negative impact on the domestic notebook PC market in the United States and slow market growth.