Aug 08, 2024 08:00:00

What is the 'reverse gambler's fallacy' theory that philosophers say may be wrong about the multiverse theory?

The multiverse theory is a theory in theoretical physics that claims that there are multiple universes other than the one we live in, and is discussed in the fields of physics, philosophy, and logic. At this time, philosophers have explained that one of the reasons used by multiverse theorists contains a fundamental error called the ' reverse gambler's fallacy .'

Many physicists assume we must live in a multiverse – but their basic maths may be wrong
https://theconversation.com/many-physicists-assume-we-must-live-in-a-multiverse-but-their-basic-maths-may-be-wrong-216106

The physics of the world we live in sometimes seems finely tuned for life. In the book ' A Fortunate Universe Life in a Finely Tuned Cosmos ' published by Geraint F. Lewis of the University of Sydney and others, they point out that if the fundamental constants and fundamental laws of physics in this world were just a little different in value, the story on Earth would be fundamentally different, and life like ours would not be able to survive. For example, if the hypothetical dark energy that drives the accelerating expansion of the universe were just a little stronger than it is now, matter would not be able to condense, stars and planets would not be born, and life would not be able to exist.

The theory that the universe has 'consciousness' and has made adjustments that are favorable for the birth of life is being seriously debated - GIGAZINE

A commonly used explanation for why physics seems fine-tuned is the multiverse theory. Multiverse theorists believe that we live in one of many universes, and that other universes have different physics values. Life could not have arisen in such a universe, but there is a small probability that a universe could have arisen where all the values happened to be just right for life to arise, and that universe is ours.

The theory of the multiverse has been considered a plausible explanation for the fine-tuning of physics, but Philip Gough, an associate professor of philosophy at Durham University in the UK, points out in his book Why? The Purpose of the Universe that multiverse theories 'commit the reverse gambler's fallacy.'

The '

gambler's fallacy ' refers to, for example, when flipping a coin and getting heads three times in a row, thinking, 'Heads and tails are both 50/50, so if I'm biased towards heads three times in a row, the next time I'll get tails will be more likely.' Since the observed results are always independent stochastic processes, the probability up to that point should have no bearing, but a series of memories can cause the calculation of probability to be incorrect.

The 'reverse gambler's fallacy,' named by philosopher Ian Hacking in relation to the gambler's fallacy, is literally the reverse of the gambler's fallacy. When you flip a coin three times in a row and get tails, you think, 'Since the probability converges to get an equal number of heads and tails, if you get three tails now, then someone must have flipped a coin many times and got heads in a row.' This refers to the idea that when a rare result is obtained from a random process, the person must have tried enough times to get that rare result.

Both the gambler's fallacy and the reverse gambler's fallacy are based on the idea that 'probabilities converge.' However, small probabilities are merely 'unlikely to occur,' and are not abnormal when they do occur. Furthermore, a certain probability is always constant regardless of previous actions or results.

Goff argues that multiverse theorists fall into the reverse gambler's fallacy when they claim that our universe is filled with the right numbers for life. Because this is probabilistically impossible, there must be many other universes in which the numbers don't line up properly.

The prevailing scientific theory is that the physical numbers governing the universe have remained constant since the Big Bang. In this case, there are two ways of thinking: either it is an incredible coincidence that our universe happens to have numbers suitable for life, or nature is driven by some unseen, inherent principle to develop life. Goff argues that it is too difficult to dismiss as coincidence, and in his book he presents a theory of the 'purpose of the universe' and discusses its impact on the meaning and purpose of humanity.