Jan 17, 2023 21:00:00

Quantitative evaluation again proves that oil major Exxon Mobil has accurately predicted global warming for more than 40 years

Researchers at Harvard University and the

Potsdam Climate Impact Institute have published a research paper stating that the predictions on global warming announced in the 1970s by Exxon Mobil , the largest oil major in the United States, were very accurate.

Assessing ExxonMobil's global warming projections | Science
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abk0063

New study puts a number on what 'Exxon knew' decades ago about climate science
https://phys.org/news/2023-01-exxon-knew-decades-climate-science.html

Study: Exxon Mobil Accurately Predicted Warming Since 1970s
https://www.voanews.com/a/study-exxon-mobil-accurately-predicted-warming-since-1970s-/6916612.html

ExxonMobil has been conducting very sophisticated scientific research on climate change since the 1970s, predicting that 'the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will be 400 to 420 ppm in 2020.' In fact, in May 2019, the global carbon dioxide concentration exceeded 415 ppm, which shows that ExxonMobil's predictions were very accurate.

The largest oil major has predicted climate change due to global warming for 40 years - GIGAZINE

by Bill Dickinson

Since it became clear that ExxonMobil has been making accurate predictions about global warming since the 1970s, researchers and organizations have pointed out various issues. Research papers have never existed. So when researchers at Harvard University and the Potsdam Climate Impact Institute dug into ExxonMobil's forecast data, they found that ExxonMobil's historical forecast data was remarkably accurate, and that global warming has been in great detail for decades. It is clear again that it was possible to predict the future of change.

In the graph below, the gray line is the global warming prediction data predicted by ExxonMobil scientists, and the red line shows the change in average temperature actually observed on the earth. There are multiple gray lines because ExxonMobil built multiple climate models from 1977 to 2003 to predict global temperature changes.

The research team used the same statistical methods as the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to analyze data on global warming projections reported by ExxonMobil scientists. As a result, it turns out that 63-83% of ExxonMobil's predictions were consistent with subsequent global warming outcomes.

Furthermore, it is also clear that the average skill score of multiple predictions modeled by ExxonMobil scientists was '67-75%' and '99%' for the most accurate model. The skill score of global warming prediction submitted to the US Congress in 1988 by Dr. James Hansen, a NASA scientist, was 38 to 66%.

Co-author of the paper, Naomi Oreskes, said the accuracy of ExxonMobil's predictions was 'amazing.'

The research team said, ``ExxonMobil correctly denies the prospect of an ice age, accurately predicts when human-induced global warming is first detected, and develops a 'carbon budget' to keep warming below 2 degrees. 'However, ExxonMobil's official statement on climate science contradicted the predictions made by the company.'

ExxonMobil has been sued by investors for making accurate predictions about climate change in the past but hiding that information. In the research paper released this time, ``The results of this study support the assertion by researchers, journalists, lawyers, politicians, and others that ``ExxonMobil accurately foresaw the threat of man-made global warming.'' , which adds quantitative accuracy.”

The world's largest oil company is being sued for ``deceiving investors while knowing about environmental destruction''-GIGAZINE

The research team said, ``Most of ExxonMobil's predictions were consistent with subsequent observations and accurately predicted global warming.ExxonMobil's predictions are based on independent academic models and It is consistent with the predictions of government models and is at least as sophisticated as those models.'