The secret to detecting the recession taught by the former central bank governor is 'men's underwear', and what is the 'henteco recession prediction method' that exists in the world?



Alan Greenspan, who chaired the US Federal Reserve Board (FRB), which is equivalent to the Bank of Japan for about 18 years from 1987 to 2006, said, 'The secret to detecting the recession is men's underwear.' CNN, a major American news agency, explains 'a reasonably successful strange recession prediction method'.

Is a recession coming? Alan Greenspan says the answer is in men's underwear --CNN
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/26/economy/recession-underwear-alan-greenspan/index.html

'I've told you that Greenspan can tell you about the downturn in men's underwear,' said Robert Krulwich, a longtime correspondent on the American radio network National Public Radio. At first glance, the recession and men's underwear seem to have nothing to do with each other, but according to business leader Greenspan, men 'don't care because no one is looking at their underwear.' It is said that a relationship with the recession will be born because of thinking that.

Sales of clothing such as outerwear depend on fashion trends, but men's underwear has nothing to do with fashion, so basically if you buy a new one, it is limited to cases where you need to have a hole. .. However, as mentioned above, men's underwear is not something that others care about, so even if there are holes or wear out during the lonely time, it will be 'Is it okay to buy this time ...' Tend to be. For this reason, Mr. Greenspan's theory is that men's underwear sales will decline during a recession.

There is also an economic index called the ' Men's underwear index ' that actually detects the start of the recession from the sales of men's underwear, and according to this index, from 2007 to 2009 triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis . During the global financial crisis of the year, sales of men's underwear fell sharply, and in 2010, when the economy began to recover, sales of men's underwear also began to recover.



Of course, there are many serious indicators in the field of economics for seriously predicting the economy, but according to CNN, there are also some 'funny recession prediction methods that work reasonably well'. So, the strange recession prediction method explained by CNN is as follows.

◆ Skyscraper index
The recession forecasting method devised by Andrew Lawrence, president of Barclays Capital, known as a real estate analyst, in 1999 is the 'Skyscraper Index.' According to President Lawrence's observation, a skyscraper will be built when the recession approaches, and when President Lawrence actually investigated it back to the latter half of the 1800s, there was a correlation between the economic crisis and the completion of 'the tallest building in the world'. It was said that it was done. Lawrence said the

Great Depression and the Empire State Building in the 1930s (completed in 1931), the American 1970s Stagflation and the World Trade Center (completed in 1973), as examples of the relationship between the economic crisis and the tallest building in the world. It lists the 2009 Dubai Shock and Burj Khalifa (completed in 2009).



◆ Lipstick index
The 'Lipstick Index' devised by Estee Lauder, chairman of

Estee Lauder , a global brand of cosmetics, skin care products and perfumes, states that 'lipstick sales will increase during times of recession.' At first glance, sales of lipsticks, like men's underwear, are likely to decline during a recession, but according to Chairman Lauder, 'Women tend to reward themselves instead of refraining from expensive shopping when they don't have the money.' That's right, cosmetics are chosen as a reward.

In fact, during the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, lipstick sales increased by 11%, and during the global financial crisis that began in 2007, overall cosmetics sales increased by 25%. .. However, market research firm Kline & Company has argued that 'sales of lipsticks increase not only during recessions but also during booms.'

In addition, despite the existence of Kline & Company's objections, in 2020 Estee Lauder CEO Fabrizio Freda said, 'Recently, everyone has come to wear masks due to the new coronavirus infection (COVID-19). So, from now on, skin care items should be used as an index instead of lipstick. '



◆ Dating index
Finally, CNN introduces the 'dating index', 'when you are unhappy, everyone looks for someone to be with you.' Match , a dating service with 15 million members worldwide, reported in quarterly earnings that it had the highest profits in the last seven years in 2009 in the midst of the global financial crisis. And in the year from March 2020 to March 2021 when COVID-19 raged, the stock price increased about 2.5 times.

Match's competing dating service, Bumble, has seen its share price rise by 22% in March 2022 due to higher profits than expected and an upgrade from analysts.

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