Mar 24, 2022 23:00:00

Well-known economists warn that 'the price of natural gas that Germany buys from Russia is a military budget,' the embargo estimates that the impact of the embargo is smaller than the pandemic.

In response

to Russia's military invasion of Ukraine, companies in each country stopped shipping products and services to Russia, separated Russian banks from the international payment system ' SWIFT ', frozen wealthy people's assets, etc. We are imposing sanctions. Meanwhile, Sergei Guriev , a liberal economist who has served as an advisor under former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, said , 'Germany's import of Russian natural gas is being used for the war. ', Is appealing for a ban on Russian energy resources.

Stop funding the war
https://stopgas.org/en/

Öl und Gas aus Russland: Warum ein Embargo Wladimir Putins Krieg beenden könnte --DER SPIEGEL
https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/oel-und-gas-aus-russland-warum-ein-embargo-wladimir-putins-krieg-beenden-koennte-a-9537c522-5f56-4856-97bc-86080c2b7028

When I accessed ' Stop funding the war ', a website that appeals for the embargo of Russian natural gas, which was established by the German weekly magazine SPIEGEL , an illustration of closing the gas transport pipe was displayed at the top.

Below that was 'the total amount Germany has paid to Russia for natural gas since the beginning of the Ukrainian war.' At the time of writing the article, the total payment amount has reached about 4 billion euros (about 530 billion yen), and it can be seen that a considerable amount of natural gas alone is paid to Russia.

The daily payment is 140 million euros (about 18.6 billion yen).

At the time of writing, more than 3.6 million refugees fled Ukraine.

Under these circumstances, 'Stop funding the war' is calling for the immediate closure of Nord Stream , a natural gas pipeline that runs from Russia to Germany. Of course, if the import of natural gas from Russia is stopped, the fuel cost will inevitably increase, and the burden will directly hit the lives of ordinary citizens. However, the war in Ukraine has already caused the worst refugee crisis in Europe since World War II, and the humanitarian and economic costs of continuing to import Russian natural gas will be embargoed. It will be more expensive than if you took it.

From an economic point of view,

Griev , a professor of economics at Sciences Po, and Oleg , a professor of economics at the University of California, Los Angeles, agree with the claim that 'Russian energy resources should be banned.'・ Mr. Itukoki . Mr. Griev fled to France in 2013 for being the subject of a criminal investigation under President Vladimir Putin , and has since served as Chief Economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development from 2015 to 2019. Since Mr. Putin has also studied in Moscow, both of them are economists with a connection to Russia.

'We are convinced that Russia's embargo on oil and gas is the fastest way to stop Mr Putin's war in Europe,' the two economists claim. It is true that the embargo on Russian energy resources is costly, but major German economists say that the cost of the embargo is about 0.5-3% of GDP, which is 120-1200 euros per person (about 10,000). It is estimated to be about 6,000 to 160,000 yen). This is about the same as a gradual recession and is unlikely to be more serious than the pandemic of the new coronavirus infection (COVID-19).

Other economists and think tanks have also released research results showing that if energy imports from Russia stop, income declines in Europe will be less than 1%, and economic production in the EU is expected to decline by about 2%. increase. 'The German government has enough financial resources to mitigate the impact on people's lives,' they said, arguing that the end of winter is the time to seek an embargo. increase.

While many of the economic measures implemented so far have certainly hurt the Russian economy, the income from the export of energy resources remains a major financial pillar for Russia, and by cutting it off, the Putin administration's support base It is said that it can shake more effectively. Guliyev and his colleagues argued that even if resources that could not be sold to Europe were sold to friendly countries such as China, a complete replacement would not be possible given the limitations of infrastructure equipment and the size of the market.

The 'Stop funding the war' campaign is also soliciting signatures from the online signing site Change.org.

Campaign · Stoppt die Finanzierung des Krieges (Stop funding the war) · Change.org
https://www.change.org/p/stoppt-die-finanzierung-des-krieges-stop-funding-the-war