What is the truth of a Polish village where only girls are born for 10 years?
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The existence of a village in southern Poland, where only girls were born for the past 10 years, was reported in the news in August 2019 and became a hot topic . According to the New York Times , in the village of Miyceze Odjanskie, all 12 children born in the last decade were girls. A statistician explains the mechanism, which seems to be the subject of a mystery novel.
Polish village hasn't seen a boy born in nearly 10 years – here's how that computes
https://theconversation.com/polish-village-hasnt-seen-a-boy-born-in-nearly-10-years-heres-how-that-computes-122176
Rajmund Frischko, the mayor of Chisek, the commune to which Mieisze Odjanskie belongs, says that many people became interested in the village after the existence of the village was broadcast on TV. A doctor from all over the country called me, “Every girl is born because of eating habits, so if you want a boy, you should make it a meal that contains plenty of calcium.” Some people talked about superstitions such as “putting ono”.
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But Craig Anderson, a statistic lecturer at the University of Glasgow, Scotland, describes the event as a “statistical coincidence”.
Like throwing a coin, the probability of being a boy or a girl is halved. Given that the gender of the mother born to the first child does not affect the gender of the second child, the probability of two consecutive girls being born is ½ × 1/2, which is a quarter. Thinking in the same way, the probability that a girl will be born in 12 consecutive times is 1/4096.
There should be no one who carries the umbrella after hearing that “the probability of rain tomorrow will be 1/4096”, and the probability of 1/4096 sounds very rare. However, this probability sounds strange on the premise that `` the possibility of twelve consecutive girls being born in the village of Mieisze Odjanskie '', but the question is `` the last 12 children born in some village in the world Changing the form of “probability that everyone is the same” changes the impression.
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According to the online database ' GeoNames ', there are about 200,000 villages with a population of 500 or more in the world. Multiplying 200,000 by a factor of 4096 yields a number of approximately 50. Similarly, there are about 50 villages where only 12 boys are born. In other words, the sentence `` Only girls have been born over the past 10 years '' seems strange when focusing on one village called Mieisze Odjanskie, but in reality there are 99 more villages in the world where similar things are happening There will be a village.
Anderson says that the timescale was the reason why Miiesze Odjanskie's event was strange. Myeisze Odjanskie has a small population of 272 people and the birth rate has not increased. For this reason, 12 girls were born over a long period of 10 years, and the strangeness of the news increased with the words “only girls were born for 10 years”.
In Glasgow, Scotland, 6852 children were born in 2017, which means that 19 children were born per day. Even if there are 12 consecutive children born in Glasgow, there should be no news.
by Tim Bish
Because the human brain tries to recognize patterns, it is not good at understanding randomness. This finding of patterns in random data is called cluster illusion .
Anderson says that there is a statistician to clarify such a probabilistic paradox and show that `` a girl can be born for 10 years '' at a glance `` impossible '' is `` predictable '' .
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