Does evolution of robots and artificial intelligence deprive human work by 2025?
The evolution of robots and artificial intelligence (AI) is remarkable, and it is expected to make human life more convenient. However, as robots evolve to replace human work, the concern that workers will be replaced by robots is gradually being asserted. The results of a large-scale survey asking 1896 experts in various fields about the evolution of robot and AI to change the lives of mankind in 2025 are as follows.
AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs | Pew Research Center's Internet & American Life Project
The answer to the question "Will humans get deprived of work by 2025 by robot and AI evolution?" Was divided into two among the experts.
· Answer that No (not robbed)
52% of the respondents replied that "there are jobs that can be superseded by the robot, but not to the situation that deprives the work."
Many optimisticists think that "Even if there is a work that human beings can replace by technological evolution, many jobs are born by new industries that are created as technology evolves, so they will not be deprived of work."Vinton Surf"Looking back on history, technological innovation is nothing to destroy employment, just to create jobs," Michael Kende of Microsoft said, "Indeed the deprivation of work There will be employment beyond the employment that is lost, "he said." I expect the effect that robots and AI's technology evolve will create new jobs.
In addition, the opinion that "The robot can not completely replace because there is a work that can only be done by human beings" is persistent, Pamela Rutridge of the Media Psychology Research Center says, "Thinking power, imagination, There are a lot of things that can not be done.When the robot evolves, human beings will be devoting energy by "areas that only human beings can not do".
Although there is no big impact on employment under the term "near future" until 2025, there are also answers that you feel the risk of losing many jobs in the future in the future. David Clark, MIT's Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, said, "The modern large trend is the automation of the service industry, as this trend continues, new skills are required for those involved in the service industry It may have serious consequences for simple workers, although automation will not proceed much in a short period of 12 years. "
Meanwhile, "There is concern about the robot taking over every job, we should not agree to replace the labor force by the robot for the future"Webbmedia GroupSome say that legal regulations should be developed to minimize the impact on employment, like Amy Webb CEO.
· Answer that Yes (deprived)
In contrast, 48% of the totalwhite collar·Blue colorI replied that most jobs will be superseded by the robot regardless of the type of job. Such pessimists reveal the view that they are strongly concerned that as a result of the loss of the majority of employment, the income gap widens more than now, and the social order is devastated.
Mr. Jerry Michelsky of strategic consultant asserts that "In the competition between robot and human beings, human beings are defeated", and work involving people in the area such as horticulture and babysitters, building advanced thoughts and trust relationships It shows the view that only a part of work required is in the safety zone and the other work is involved in the rough wave of automation.
Also, Robert Cannon, an expert on Internet law, said, "Everything that seems to be automatable is automated, and to put it briefly, aggressively to the question," What is the only contribution you can contribute to human beings? " There is no possibility that a work that can not be answered will survive. "
Furthermore, there is an opinion that evolution of robot and AI is different from innovation so far.The Economist"The evolution of robot technology and AI can have a greater impact than conventional technological innovation.The innovation that has occurred so far was slow, It was possible to change jobs to different jobs by receiving reeducation.However, the speed of evolution of robots and AI is so fast that even those in technical positions quickly become obsolete, and correspondence is this It will be as hard as it will not be possible. "
Also, Mr. Justin Reich at Harvard University believes that robots and AI will deprive routine work in an accelerated manner, and complex work such as craftsmen, lawyers and accountants is no exception. And, except for those who are working on some of the sophisticated jobs left behind very little, it is pointed out that the majority of the current middle classes may fall to low income groups.
"The importance of education" has been raised as a common opinion among pessimist and optimist. However, Internet sociologist Howard Rheingold said, "The work that robots leave to human beings is only those that require thought and experience, in other words, only the best educated persons are working with machines We will be able to compete, "he said," Nevertheless, the current education has always been taught to memorize what is told silently and I can not keep up with the times, " As we criticize, it seems that education with an eye on the arrival of the robotic era is still fumbling.
ByNASA Goddard Space Flight Center
· The birth of new value
Due to the evolution of robots and AIs, as a prerequisite to answering the question "whether people are deprived of work or not", there are also responses suggesting the necessity of rethinking the definition of what "work" is in the first place .
Mr. Hull Varian of Google said, "If job means an unpleasant task that needs to be repeated, the answer to the question whether human beings are deprived of work by robot and AI evolution is Jesus. As the "work" was deprived by the appearance of machine and dishwasher, it will be so in the future, the situation that depriving of work is welcome is welcome, said, "The time of work is reduced I anticipate that leisure will be increased by not being tied to work.
"As a result of constant emphasis on efficiency since the Industrial Revolution, as a result of pursuing only economics based on large-scale mass production, a social structure has been created that exploits from people who do not need much technical skill By pointing out the fact that robot technology improves, it is possible to use high-priced goods and services that can be used for a longer period of time from custom-made cheap and homemade disposable products, which are expensive but customized for the person There are opinions that anticipate the change to the social structure where born is born.
As far as the various opinions received from such experts are concerned, further evolution of the robot and AI is certain to be true regardless of the correct answer of the question "Do humans deprive the robot of work in 2025?" In 2025, it seems not to be surprising even if a completely different way of working and a work view appears.