Will technology that continues to evolve rapidly deprive work from humans
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Sloan Management SchoolProfessor Erik Brynjolfsson and his co-author Andrew McAfee, computer technology that continues to evolve in a wide range of fields from industrial robotics to automatic translation services as a background of the declining employment rate becoming a problem in the whole world in recent years I claim it is. The industry that accepts new technologies one after another is not only manufacturing, retailing, clerical work but also aggressively adopting the latest technology in industries related to finance / law and medical and education.
How Technology Is Destroying Jobs | MIT Technology Review
Robots andautomation, Software may be a substitute for workers may be obvious facts for those who have worked in automobile manufacturing or travel agencies. Professor Brynjolfsson and McAfee argue that "rapidly evolving technology destroys at a faster speed than creating a new job and is the cause of the sluggish average income in the United States and a disparity society." Furthermore, it is said that the same thing is likely to occur in countries with technological evolution.
Professor Brynjolfsson's backing supports one chart that shows the relationship between "productivity" and "employment", which is an important indicator for economic growth in economics. The chart on the chart shows that productivity and employment are rising as if they agree with each other after the Second World War. What was going on in the economy at this time was clear that the business created value from the workers, the economy of the whole country was raised and a new work was created.
Two lines representing productivity and employment of the graph gradually diverged from the beginning of 2000, productivity continued to rise, but employment started to decline rapidly and declined. There is a big gap between productivity and employment by 2011 and it clearly shows that employment creation is not proportional to economic growth.
Professor Brynjolfsson is confidently saying, "The rise in productivity and the decline in employment are due to advances in technology." Professor Brynjolfsson 's assertion that threatens many economists who put great confidence in rapidly advancing technology is very shocking.
"While technologies can boost productivity by boosting productivity, they also have a dark side that eliminates the need for many jobs and adversely affects society. Productivity and new inventions have historically been classified as Average income and employment have declined despite the increase at unspecified speed.The evolution speed of technology is too fast and people are lagging because our technology and organization can not catch up. " .
Examples of cases where digital technology robs people's jobs, such as to support Professor Brynjolfsson's claims, can be seen everywhere. In the manufacturing industry, the use of robots and advanced automation is generalized, and the fact that the manufacturing industry in the United States and China is fewer than 1977 has been confirmed. The unmanned car Google car may suggest what automation will allow in the near future.
The real threat, however, is that the site where technology is a substitute for humans extends not only to the manufacturing industry but also to clerical workers. The routine work of office work in the post office and customer service, etc. has been automatically processed and has disappeared. McAfee says, "I'd like to think that my argument is wrong, but if all the SF technologies are real, what is it necessary for human beings?"
So, really whether the evolution of technology is causing the decline in employment, many labor economists acknowledge Professor Brynjolfsson 's assertion that "data that serves as definitive evidence is inadequate" I take a positive attitude. According to Professor Richard Freeman of Harvard University Labor Economics, it is difficult to measure and measure only the influence of technology from the influence of macroeconomics given to society, so it is clearly understood the cause of the decline in employment He said that no one is there.
Also like Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist David Autor, like many economists, skeptical about the interrelationship between technology evolution and employment decline. Mr. Autor said, "Employment dropped sharply in early 2000, but no one knows the cause.In fact it is true that there has not been much evidence linking the decline in employment and the progress of technology, but technology It is a fact that the evolution of work is changing jobs, and that is not necessarily a good thing. "
Since the 1980's, computers have taken over the tasks of repetitive tasks, typified by bookkeeping and administrative affairs, while at the same time they are creative and accompanied by ability to solve problems with high salaries, which is on the rise. On the other hand, demand for service industries such as restaurants that can not automate work increases. According to Autor, these results have resulted in polarized workforce and hollowing out of middle wealthy people. The fact that entrepreneurs increase opportunities based on new technologies and rise in the absolute number of work seems to be a pattern when new technology was born even from the long history of mankind.
The important point is whether technology evolution applies to patterns that have been repeated in history. The industrial revolution that occurred in the 1700s changed the nature of work and crushed many types of occupations. In 1900, 41% of the population of the United States worked in agriculture, but it decreased to 2% in 2000. Like agriculture, the population who worked in the manufacturing industry occupied 30% of Americans during the Second World War, but in 2013 it had dropped to 10%, one of the reasons being automation I will.
ByWorld Bank Photo Collection
Harvard economist Lawrence Katz, who has extensively studied the influence of technology evolution on occupations over the past several centuries, said, "In the first place there are no such things as technological progress that robbed employment in the long run, Mentioned.
Even though workers took 10 years to adjust the skills according to the demands of employment in accordance with the advancement of technology, the work did not go to zero. Even as technology advances, people can create new work and have caught up with technology. However, Mr. Katz seems to be unable to abandon the possibility that technology has a property different from the Industrial Revolution and the like, possibly affecting various types of work over a wider range than the history of the past It may be that nobody can predict what future employment will be.
In order to know the future of employment, there is a need to see what state of the art technology is currently integrated into the industry, but it is very difficult to find evidence that workers are losing their jobs by machines . One reason is automation. Machine robbed human's work, but because automation is being used to efficiently advance human work, it is not evidence that IBM Research machines are depriving work.
An increase in productivity not only means that even a small number of people in a business can do the same amount of work as in many cases, it will enable production to be expanded with fewer people and to enter new markets.
A startup company founded in 2002 and bought by Amazon in 2007 by Amazon for 775 million dollars (about 75 billion yen)Kiva SystemsDeveloped robots are optimized to take items ordered from products arranged in a wide warehouse and carry them to the workers. The factory which introduced Kiva's robot can process orders four times the ordinary factory. However, Kiva's founder and CEO Mick Mountz said, "Robots did not deprive employees of their jobs and made them leave their jobs, and that kind of thing will not happen in the future."
Mr. Mountz said the reason for the e-commerce retailer, which makes up the majority of Kiva's customers, has become difficult to secure personnel to support the company's rapid growth, with the introduction of Kiva We succeeded in reducing the cost of distribution, because we were able to expand the scale of the company. "Automation is the key to keeping down the cost of distribution that is very important in business," Mountz said. With Kiva's strong sales of robots, the number of people is increasing, but most of them are software engineers in charge of robot algorithms.
However, having the robot understand and execute the instructions is very difficult, especially in places where many restrictions such as warehouses and offices can not be applied, it seems that human power is needed. The most applicable to the meaning of working with peopleRethinkDevelopedBaxterA robot called. Baxter is made assuming that it will be used in a small factory, handling all the work by robot alone to do tasks that are not complicated, such as picking up objects and moving them to a box You can not.
A robot designed to assist human work is contributing to improving the productivity of employees, which is a pain that is troublesome or poorly directed instead of human beings.
However, the work such as clerical work is somewhat different from the situation the manufacturing industry is receiving. Because machines are beginning to have human-like ability to solve many problems by combining computer's artificial intelligence with a large amount of data.
IBM ResearchHas introduced computer technology that has outstanding ability to medical, financial, and other industries. For example, computer systems that aid doctors' diagnosis for diseases such as cancer and treat them are already in the experimental stage. Analysis of massive amounts of data aggregated up to now, processing with a computing power of terrible speed to figure out advice to patients, such as a computer doctor is also taken into consideration, but the doctor needed judgment It is said that it takes time to bring power to computers.
According to Professor Brynjolfsson and McAfee, new technology violates human technology in a completely unprecedented way, and those who work in the medical and education workplaces where advanced technology is required are greatly affected Thing. Because of this influence, the intermediate affluent population is drastically reduced, and it is supposed to create a disparate society.
Professor Brynjolfsson says that he believes that people can restore branched productivity and employment. However, there is one dirty secret in the economy, and advances in technology will grow the economy and produce wealth, but law has not decided that anyone will benefit from the law. In other words, there is a lot of losers in the shadow that there are people who win the race with the machine.
in Note, Posted by darkhorse_log