Airplanes in developing countries tend to be 13 times faster than in developed countries

Some people say that "There are fewer plane accidents than automobile accidents, but absolutely no help if an airplane falls" or "I can not trust metal clusters to fly in the sky" absolutely do not take an airplane Although it exists, most people will not be conscious of "it may die today" every time they board a passenger plane.

However, there is a certain probability that the airplane will die in an accident when riding a passenger aircraft with a slight probability,Developing countriesIn a passenger planeDeveloped countryIt is 13 times higher than that of the other.

Details are as below.Airline passengers in the development countries face 13 times crash risk as US

MIT Sloan School of Management(Massachusetts Institute of TechnologySloan Business School)Operations researchProfessor of Arnold Barnett, an aviation safety expertTransportation ScienceAccording to the paper published in the magazine, people riding passenger aircraft in developing countries are thirteen times higher when riding in a passenger aircraft in developed countries, even in countries developing economic breakthroughs in developing countries in recent years seven times as much as in developed countries, She seems to face the risk of death per flight.

According to Barnett's calculations, the risk of death per flight of passenger aircraft (including jet aircraft and propeller aircraft) from 2000 to 2007 was 14 million 1 (0.000007%) in developed countries such as the United States, Japan and Ireland Thing. This is a figure that "Most people die when 14 million times passenger aircraft", but even those who use passenger aircraft once a day will cost 38,000 years to get 14 million flights, so the airliner is pretty It seems to be said that it is a safe ride.

On the other hand, in countries that economically advanced in developing countries (Taiwan, India, Brazil etc.), the risk of death per passenger aircraft is one in two million (0.00005%), and in a country that is lagging behind economically It was said that it was 800 thousandth (0.000125%).

Eighty one hundred thousandth is a figure that takes an average of 2200 years before a person who decided to die in an airplane accident took a fatal accident even if he gets on a plane every day in a developing country, Though it is 13 times easier to die than taking an airplane at the airplane, the airliner is said to be a safe ride. Professor Barnett emphasized that the difference in safety between passenger aircraft of developed and developing countries is the difference between "very safe" and "safe", not the difference between "safe" and "dangerous" It is.

The data analyzed is up to 2007, but as a case showing that this trend continues very recently, since the beginning of 2010, there have been eight fatal accidents that occurred on regular flights of passenger aircraft , It seems that all eight of them are taking place in developing countries.

Professor Barnett wondered why the safety of passenger aircraft has not become closer to that of developed countries, even though economically advanced countries in developing countries have average life expectancy and national income both in line with developed countries In the context of values ​​such as obedience and individualism towards power, economically advanced developing countries are far closer to other developing countries than developed countries. I quote the paper that I am going to say, "The safety of airplanes in developing countries where economic growth is significant is still lagging behind industrialized countries can be explained by the fact that cultural changes have not overtaken economic change We may not. "

in Note, Posted by darkhorse_log