A sports advisory group has pointed to the possibility of manipulation related to the World Cup at Polymarket.
The Group of Copenhagen, an independent organization that monitors potential manipulation (such as match-fixing) in sports competitions, conducted an investigation into gambling and betting irregularities at
Bilan de la surveillance par le Groupe de Copenhague de l'intégrité de la Coupe du monde de la FIFA - Sport
https://www.coe.int/fr/web/sport/-/review-of-the-group-of-copenhagen-s-integrity-monitoring-of-the-fifa-world-cup
FIFA, global advisory body clash over potential betting irregularities at World Cup - The Athletic
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7463768/2026/07/23/world-cup-betting-irregularities-fifa/
Potential World Cup manipulation on Polymarket flagged by sports advisory group | Mashable
https://mashable.com/tech/world-cup-manipulation-report-polymarket-prediction-market
The Group of Copenhagen investigated whether any rigging or manipulation occurred in all 104 matches of the FIFA World Cup 2026. While the report summarizing the findings has not yet been published at the time of writing, the Council of Europe , an international organization, has released a summary of the report.
The Group of Copenhagen has announced that the FIFA World Cup 2026 will feature a record-breaking 48 teams and a total of 104 matches. With this expansion in scale, The Group of Copenhagen stated that 'strengthening the system was necessary to monitor the risk of manipulation.'
The Group of Copenhagen used OSINT and SOCMINT investigative methodologies to monitor fluctuations in odds in the gambling market. They also tracked individuals suspected of past involvement in sports-related match-fixing to monitor for any manipulation.
The Group of Copenhagen monitored all 104 matches, noting that 15 matches played in the final round of the group stage were 'under increased monitoring.' The organization classifies events based on four categories: green (normal), yellow (slightly elevated alert level), orange (elevated alert level), and red (highest alert level). This time, seven 'yellow' notifications were issued. Four of these have been revealed by information obtained by The Athletic from 'sources familiar with the report's contents.'
South Africa's Temba Zwane was shown a red card in the 84th minute of the tournament's opening match against Mexico.
Polymarket, a US-based cryptocurrency prediction marketplace, made $4.8 million (approximately 785 million yen) from bets that Spain would not beat Cape Verde in a group stage match.
In the match where Spain defeated Saudi Arabia 4-0, there was a 3.5-minute delay before the Video Assistant Referee (VAR) team disallowed Ferran Torres' goal.
In addition, according to sources, the report also mentions a betting marketplace that opened on Polymarket on July 2nd, titled 'Will Folarin Balogun play in the match against Belgium?'. This marketplace was opened on the same day that Balogun received a red card in the first round of the knockout stage match against Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Subsequently,
Regarding this, The Group of Copenhagen pointed out that 'the suspensions for the other 14 players who received red cards during the tournament were not suspended, and no players were offered a ticket through Polymarket.'
The Group of Copenhagen has already sent an official written request to FIFA demanding an explanation regarding the red card incident involving Balogun. Meanwhile, FIFA has stated that it supports the FIFA Integrity Task Force's conclusion that ' no match manipulation or suspicious gambling activity was found .' In this case, The Group of Copenhagen conducted an investigation in cooperation with the FIFA Integrity Task Force, but the FIFA Integrity Task Force has expressed a different view.
Furthermore, it has been reported that trading volume on prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket has surged during the FIFA World Cup 2026.
The FIFA World Cup 2026 has led to a surge in trading volume on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, reaching record highs - GIGAZINE
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