Jul 05, 2026 20:00:00

The upcoming FIFA World Cup 2026 has led to a surge in trading volume on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, reaching record highs.

The FIFA World Cup 2026 is being held in three countries—the United States, Canada, and Mexico—from June 12 to July 20, 2026. CNBC reports that the quadrennial football festival has resulted in record-high trading volume in prediction markets in June 2026.

2026 FIFA World Cup boosts prediction market volumes
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/04/2026-fifa-world-cup-boosts-prediction-market-volumes.html

Data collected by data analytics firm Dune Analytics has revealed that the projected monthly trading volume of the prediction market Kalshi reached over $31 billion (approximately 4.97 trillion yen) in June 2026, a 70% increase from the previous month. Since June 12th, when the FIFA World Cup 2026 began, Kalshi's daily trading volume has reportedly exceeded $1 billion (approximately 160 billion yen).

Polymarket, another prediction market, projected a monthly trading volume of over $10.8 billion (approximately 1.73 trillion yen) for June 2026, setting a new record for the highest monthly trading volume ever. Although Polymarket's monthly trading volume had been on a downward trend in April and May, the situation improved due to the hosting of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Furthermore, Polymarket's projected monthly trading volume in the United States for June 2026 increased significantly from $1.77 billion (approximately 280 billion yen) in May to over $3.5 billion (approximately 560 billion yen).

The graph below summarizes the monthly trading volume for Kalshi and Polymarket. It clearly shows that the monthly trading volume for both platforms has surged since the start of the FIFA World Cup 2026.

In the FIFA World Cup 2026, the US national team is scheduled to play Belgium on July 7, 2026, at 9:00 AM for a spot in the quarterfinals. On Kalshi, over $64 million (approximately 10 billion yen) and on Polymarket, over $122 million (approximately 20 billion yen) have been traded regarding whether the US national team will win the FIFA World Cup 2026. However, the probability of the US national team winning is only 4.3% and 3% respectively on Kalshi and Polymarket.

Furthermore, Bank of America has released data on the trading volume of Rothera, a prediction market that launched in June 2026. According to this data, Rothera's trading volume in June 2026 reached $2 billion (approximately 320 billion yen), accounting for 7% of the total trading volume of prediction markets in the United States.

The graph below shows Rodera's daily transaction volume since the service launched.