iPhone production predicted to fall by 10 million units, no recovery expected according to Apple Intelligence

The iPhone 16 series was released in September 2024, but due to a decrease in orders, device production is expected to decrease by 10 million units in the nine months from October 2024 to June 2025 compared to the same period last year, according to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who is familiar with Apple information.

iPhone 16 orders cut by around 10 million units for 4Q24–1H25; no evidence yet that Apple Intelligence could boost iPhone shipments in the near term | by Ming-Chi Kuo | Oct, 2024 | Medium

To avoid any misunderstanding, the 10 million units cut is the sum of three-quarters of cuts (from 4Q24 to 2Q25) https://t.co/t7Ddtb4je0

— Ming-Chi Kuo (@mingchikuo) October 23, 2024

Report: Apple slashes iPhone 16 orders by 10 million units, but Pro sales look strong - 9to5Mac
https://9to5mac.com/2024/10/23/report-apple-slashes-iphone-16-orders-by-10-million-units-but-pro-sales-look-strong/

According to Guo, although the Pro and Pro MAX models of the iPhone 16 series are popular, the other two models are less popular, and production volumes are expected to be 80 million units in the fourth quarter of 2024 (October to December), 45 million units in the first quarter of 2025 (January to March), and 39 million units in the second quarter of 2025 (April to June).

'iPhone 16 Pro' photo review, comparing size and screen size with iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 16 - GIGAZINE

Production volumes for the three periods corresponding to the same period last year were 84 million, 48 million, and 41 million, respectively, so the total production volume will decrease by approximately 10 million units.

Meanwhile, the fourth-generation iPhone SE is expected to begin production in December 2024. According to Guo, production volume will be 8.6 million units from December 2024 to the first quarter of 2025.

Regarding the view that 'Apple Intelligence will lead to increased iPhone sales,' Guo said, 'I am convinced that Apple Intelligence has the potential to become a popular paid service in the long term.' However, he denied that this would immediately lead to increased sales, saying, 'It is highly likely that further hardware innovation will be required in conjunction with AI development.'