Analyst points out that 'Apple Intelligence has not led to increased iPhone sales'

As chat AIs such as OpenAI's ChatGPT and Google's Gemini gain popularity, Apple has announced its personal AI ' Apple Intelligence ' and has already started offering it in some regions . Apple announced Apple Intelligence in an attempt to not miss out on the AI market, but analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reported that at the time of writing, it has not led to increased iPhone sales.

Apple Likely to Face Fiercer Challenges in 2025, Requiring Caution Against Potential Downside Risks from Earlier Overly Optimistic Market Sentiment | by Ming-Chi Kuo | Jan, 2025 | Medium
https://medium.com/@mingchikuo/apple-likely-to-face-fiercer-challenges-in-2025-requiring-caution-against-potential-downside-risks-5cec099e1d5d

Apple Intelligence isn't helping Apple boost iPhone sales
https://9to5mac.com/2025/01/10/apple-intelligence-iphone-sales/

Kuo, an industry analyst well-known for his highly reliable leaks of Apple-related information, has pointed out based on his own industry research that despite Apple's release of Apple Intelligence, iPhone sales have remained almost stagnant. According to him, iPhone shipments in 2025 could be 8-10% lower than investment analysts expect.

Kuo also said that Apple is taking a cautious stance when discussing iPhone production plans for 2025 with major iPhone suppliers. Apple is rumored to be planning to release a new iPhone SE 4 in the first half of 2025, but iPhone shipments in the first half of 2025 are expected to decrease by about 6% year-on-year. iPhone shipments were flat year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025. This is because Apple brought forward iPhone shipments in January in preparation for President-elect Trump's new tariff policy. Therefore, iPhone shipments in the second quarter of 2025 are expected to decrease year-on-year.

Will the 4th generation iPhone SE without the home button be released in 2025?

In addition, there is data that although smartphone shipments in China in December 2024 were almost flat compared to the same month last year, iPhone shipments decreased by about 10 to 12% year-on-year. This indicates Apple's continued decline in market share in the Chinese market.

In fact, it has been reported that Chinese manufacturer Huawei is regaining market share in China's smartphone market, putting Apple in a difficult position.

Huawei is making a comeback despite tough US sanctions and is catching up with the iPhone in the Chinese market - GIGAZINE

by Web Summit

Apple is reported to be releasing a new, ultra-thin iPhone 17 Air in September 2025, and is also rumored to be developing a foldable iPhone . These new iPhones are likely to only support eSIM due to their structure. However, Kuo points out that China has not approved the use of eSIM, so unless the design is changed, there may be problems shipping these new iPhones .

Will the iPhone lineup be revamped in 2025, the Plus model will be discontinued, and the ultra-thin 'Air' model will appear? What will the specs of the Air model be? - GIGAZINE

The iPhone 17 Air is said to be about 5.5 mm at its thinnest point, which is more than 2 mm thinner than the current iPhone 16 Pro (8.25 mm). The iPhone 17 Air may be shipped in larger quantities than the Plus model, but Kuo pointed out that the combination of downgraded components, a higher price, and a user experience similar to that of the current model makes it unlikely to significantly boost overall iPhone sales.

Some analysts and media have predicted that Apple Intelligence will become a paid service in the near future, but Apple CEO Tim Cook explicitly denied this idea in an interview with WIRED .

Kuo also said that past surveys have shown that iPhone users are not interested in Apple Intelligence, and that 'this result is consistent with my latest supply chain research showing that Apple Intelligence is not driving iPhone replacement demand.'

Although Kuo reported only negative information about Apple Intelligence, he prefaced his report by saying that he is not pessimistic about the long-term outlook for Apple Intelligence, and that there is no evidence that Apple Intelligence will benefit the hardware replacement cycle or the service business. He also warned that 'we need to be cautious of potential downside risks caused by excessive market optimism.'