The European Space Agency reports that if the increase in space debris is not stopped, space travel and other activities will become impossible in the future.



The European Space Agency (ESA), an organization of European countries involved in space development and research, has released a report on the space environment as of 2024. According to the report, although efforts are ongoing to reduce the number of space debris, they are not enough to stop the increase, and if things continue as they are, space travel will become difficult in the future.

ESA - ESA Space Environment Report 2024
https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Space_Debris/ESA_Space_Environment_Report_2024



ESA Report Shows Unsustainable Levels of Orbital Debris - Payload

https://payloadspace.com/esa-report-shows-unsustainable-levels-of-orbital-debris/

According to a report released by ESA, more than 2,800 satellites were launched into low Earth orbit in 2023. Most of them were added to the commercial communications satellite constellation at altitudes of 500 to 600 km. As of 2024, two-thirds of active satellites will be operating in this range, meaning satellite operators will need to be careful to avoid collisions.

Meanwhile, the total number of orbital objects being tracked as of 2024 is nearly 35,000. Of these, 26,000 are pieces of debris with a side length of over 10 cm. In general, the size of space debris that is said to be 'capable of causing catastrophic damage upon impact' is over 1 cm on a side, and the number of such objects is estimated to be more than 1 million.

The graph below shows the number of tracked objects on the vertical axis and the passage of time on the horizontal axis, and shows that the number of tracked objects is increasing year by year.



Efforts to reduce debris have been somewhat successful, with more satellites now undergoing controlled re-entry into the atmosphere than ever before.

However, there is a limit to how much improvement can be made, and space debris continues to increase. Below is a graph showing the predicted increase in space debris over time, with the black line assuming that there will be no more launches in the future, and the red line assuming that launches will continue at the same pace in the future. If the debris reduction is not realized in the future, but the number of launches remains the same, it is possible that space travel will become difficult due to the 'Kessler Syndrome,' in which debris causes further collisions in a chain reaction.



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