Mar 30, 2023 12:40:00

Research report that automatically generated AI such as 'ChatGPT' will increase the world's GDP by 7% and at the same time affect the employment of 300 million people, pointing out that Japan is the third most affected in the world

Due to the rapid development of 'Generative AI' such as interactive AI 'ChatGPT' and image generation AI 'Stable Diffusion'

, more than 40% of security experts predict that 'AI will take away jobs by 2030'. Research results show that 80% of all occupations are affected by AI , and the risks of having too high ability are often pointed out. According to a study by American financial group Goldman Sachs , reported at the end of March 2023, generative AI will provide major breakthroughs, automating a quarter of the work done in the United States and the Eurozone, and making the world a better place. It has been pointed out that the country's gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 7% and there is a risk of causing 'significant disruption' to the labor market.

(PDF file)Goldman Sachs| Global Economics Analyst| The Potentially Large Effects of Artificial Intelligence on| Economic Growth (Briggs/Kodnani)
https://www.key4biz.it/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Global-Economics-Analyst_-The-Potentially-Large-Effects-of-Artificial-Intelligence-on-Economic-Growth-Briggs_Kodnani.pdf

Generative AI set to affect 300mn jobs across major economies | Financial Times
https://www.ft.com/content/7dec4483-ad34-4007-bb3a-7ac925643999

After the appearance of image generation AI such as ' DALL-E ' and ' DALL E 2 ', Stable Diffusion, which can generate images with high precision from prompts, releases new functions one after another, prohibiting posting of AI illustrations and copyright Discussions about the problem have become active, ChatGPT announced in November 2022 has achieved ``100 million monthly users'' in just two months, and Google will become a rival of ChatGPT in February 2023. The development of generative AI has been rapidly accelerating in recent years, such as the announcement of the type AI ' Bard '. The text generation tools ``GPT-2'' and ``GPT-3'' created by OpenAI based on Google's language translation model `` Transformer '' had a great impact on the rapid development of AI tools, but in March 2023 In addition, the successor version 'GPT-4' was announced, and further technological innovation is expected.

``GPT-4'' announcement, top 10% of the bar exam & high performance in Japanese & image processing and programming are possible, and it is also described as ``shock equivalent to the first iPhone''-GIGAZINE

OpenAI is a non-profit corporation with the aim of `` disseminating and developing friendly AI in a way that benefits all of humanity '', so we initially disclosed datasets and training methods, but OpenAI's joint The founder said , ``The idea of making AI open was a mistake,'' and the GPT-4 data is private. In addition, OpenAI will revise the terms of use on March 23, 2023 regarding the use of tools and services such as ChatGPT, and will show clearer and more specific terms of use than ever before. is showing

OpenAI revises terms of use for tools and services such as ChatGPT, showing clearer and more specific examples of prohibition than before-GIGAZINE

In response to such a move, Goldman Sachs released a research report on generative AI on March 27, 2023. While generative AI will benefit the world's GDP by 7% over a decade, the report says it will cause 'major disruption' to the labor market, putting 300 million full-time workers out of work in major economies. It is predicted that it will be affected by automation. 'Generative AI's ability to generate content indistinguishable from human-made content and remove barriers to communication between humans and machines is a potential development,' said study authors Joseph Briggs and Debesh Kodnani. It reflects significant progress with significant macroeconomic effects on a global scale,' he said, adding that about two-thirds of jobs in the United States and Europe are exposed to some level of automation by AI. The graph below is a survey by Goldman Sachs on jobs that are likely to be affected by AI automation for each job type, and here, clerical tasks and lawyers are listed as jobs with a particularly high risk of being deprived of work. increase.

According to the paper, about 63% of workers will get the positive effect that 'less than half of their work will be automated, allowing them to continue working and devote time to more productive activities.' It has been. In addition, about 30% of workers who do manual labor or work outdoors are believed to be largely unaffected by AI, even if they can be affected by automation by other machines.

However, the remaining 7% of workers are in ``weak jobs'' where at least half of the work they are doing in the past may be replaced by generative AI. In addition, Goldman Sachs predicts that AI will have an impact on work of about 20%, as manual labor still accounts for a large proportion of the world.

In the paper, graphs show figures by country regarding the impact of AI on work. According to this graph, Hong Kong, which is said to be most affected, has a figure close to 30%. Japan also ranks third with about 25%.

In a study conducted by researchers at OpenAI and the University of Pennsylvania, including analysis by large-scale language models (LLM), about 80% of American workers said that ``at least 10% of the tasks could be performed by generative AI. There is.' Goldman Sachs' estimates, including other similar studies, are seen as relatively conservative results.

As a result of research that 80% of all occupations will be affected by AI in the future, jobs affected by ChatGPT tend to have higher wages-GIGAZINE

Goldman Sachs also believes that if investment in AI continues to grow at a pace similar to software investment in the 1990s, domestic investment alone could approach 1% of U.S. GDP by 2030. It also points out that there is

In addition, Goldman Sachs' trial calculation is calculated assuming that `` AI will be able to perform tasks such as small business tax filings, evaluating complex insurance claims, and documenting crime scene investigation results.'' On the other hand, we do not expect AI to be adopted for more delicate tasks such as judicial rulings, confirmation of the status of critically ill patients, and research on international tax laws.