What are the eight lessons learned from analyzing technological advances over the last 20 years?
Research firm
8 Lessons from 20 Years of Hype Cycles
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/8-lessons-from-20-years-hype-cycles-michael-mullany
According to Gartner, the Hype Cycle categorizes notable technology lifecycles into five periods: 'dawn,' 'peak of'excessive expectations',' 'disillusionment,' 'enlightenment,' and 'stability of productivity.' However, it will help make investment decisions for each technology. For example, in the ' Hype Cycle of Future-Oriented Infrastructure Technology in Japan ' released in 2020, technologies such as general-purpose artificial intelligence (AGI) and human augmentation are located in the 'dawn', and mixed reality ( Technologies such as MR) and 5G are at the peak of'excessive expectations'.
Mr. Marnie explains the eight lessons learned by collecting and analyzing the 'Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies' for the past 20 years.
◆ Lesson 1: It is very difficult to predict the future
Of the more than 200 technologies that have appeared in the Hype Cycle, only a handful of technologies, such as
◆ Lesson # 2: Surprisingly many technologies disappear in an instant
According to Mr. Marnie, of the more than 200 technologies that have appeared in the Hype Cycle so far, more than 50 technologies were 'one-hit wonder technologies' that appeared only once in the Hype Cycle. Some one-hit wonder technologies have gained some support, such as the podcast that appeared in the Hype Cycle in 2005 and the crowdsourcing that appeared in 2013, but the folk sonomy that appeared in 2006 and 2011 There are many technologies that we don't hear now, such as the social TV that appeared in.
◆ Lesson # 3: Many technologies never see the light of day
Twenty percent of the technologies that have appeared in the Hype Cycle over the years have disappeared without becoming mainstream technology. Marnie said ultra-wideband (UWB) , paid RSS, WiMAX , and desktop Linux for business use are examples of technologies that never saw the light of day despite appearing multiple times during the 'peak of'excessive expectations''. Is listed.
In particular, mesh networks have appeared in the Hype Cycle nine times during the 11 years from 2003 to 2013. 'I'm not a network expert, but I remember it was very difficult to build a mesh network,' Marnie emphasizes the dystocia of mesh networks.
'In recent years, consumer mesh networks have finally arrived on the market,' said Marnie. In fact, GIGAZINE has published multiple review articles on building a mesh network.
◆ Lesson 4: There are many technologies that have not become widespread due to defective specifications.
Among the technologies that appear in the Hype Cycle, there are some technologies whose design concept itself is still valid, but which has not been widely used due to a defect in the specifications.
For example, the 'WS-enabled business model' that appeared in the 2003 Hype Cycle represents protocols and message standards such as WS-Addressing and WS-Security, which means that computers in different environments communicate with each other using a unified standard. It was the focus of attention as the technology we were aiming for, but it didn't spread due to many specification issues and the developers' refusal to use it. However, in recent years, standards with similar functions have become widespread.
In addition, the 'public authentication service' that appeared in the Hype Cycle in 2002 is one example where the times have not caught up with technology. This technology was aimed at authenticating many services with a single account, but it wasn't popular due to flawed specifications. However, in 2007, Google, Twitter, etc. cooperated to develop OAuth , an authority authentication technology, and at the time of article creation, you can sign in to many services using accounts such as Google, Twitter, and Facebook. 'These technologies had the right idea, but the specifications were flawed,' Marnie said.
◆ Lesson 5: Some technologies have been developed for decades
Some of the technologies that have emerged in the Hype Cycle have been developed over the years. For example, speech recognition technology first appeared in the Hype Cycle in 1995 and has continued to be developed since then, and in recent years it has progressed to the same level of accuracy as humans with the development of deep learning.
In addition, technologies related to data analysis have continued to appear in the hype cycle over the past 20 years, renaming them as 'data mining (90s)', 'data analysis (2000s)' and 'big data (2010s)'. I will. 'It seems like we always need a new generation of architecture to deal with the relentless expansion of the range and size of the data we want to analyze,' Marnie points out.
◆ Lesson 6: Some technologies appear to be completely undeveloped
Quantum computers were considered in 2000 to be 'technology that will be realized more than 10 years ahead.' 'Quantum computers are still treated as'technology that will be realized more than 10 years from now',' Marnie points out.
Regarding 'human augmentation, ' which appeared as a 'dawn' technology in the 'Hype Cycle of Future-Oriented Infrastructure Technology in Japan' in 2020, Marnie said, 'The prosthetic limbs and neural control technology are remarkable. Despite advances, thinking control computing technology is still in development and will not be generally available until at least 10 years from now. '
◆ Lesson 7: There are technologies that are advancing without being noticed
'As a result of analyzing many Hype Cycles, some technologies have made breakthroughs after they were considered complete or unsuccessful. Many technologies were previously Is being enthusiastically studied by researchers, venture companies and Big Tech while the generation is believed to have failed. '
Marnie cites head-mounted displays as an example of a breakthrough technology. Developed in the late 1990s, head-mounted displays appeared in the 2001 Hype Cycle. However, due to the limitations of display-related technology at that time, the development of head-mounted displays was temporarily suspended. Nevertheless, recent advances in displays, motion sensors, and machine learning algorithms have led to the emergence of advanced head-mounted displays for VR and AR.
◆ Lesson 8: There are many major technologies that have not appeared in the Hype Cycle
According to Marnie, many mainstream technologies are being developed, even among the technologies that have not appeared in the Hype Cycle for the past 20 years. Examples include 'x86 virtualization, ' which is indispensable for data center operations, and 'NoSQL, ' a group of database management systems that do not depend on SQL.
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