It is pointed out that the number of deaths due to COVID-19 in various countries around the world is reported to be small.
The number of deaths due to the new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) has been
Tracking covid-19 excess deaths across countries | The Economist
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
Governments around the world regularly report the death toll from COVID-19. However, The Economist said, 'The number of deaths announced includes only those who tested positive for the new coronavirus, so deaths in areas where testing is not in place are not counted.' In addition, there is a possibility that 'the paperwork of the hospital and the authorities in charge has been delayed' and 'the medical system has been tightened by COVID-19, and patients other than COVID-19 may have died without going to the hospital'. , 'There is a difference between the actual death toll from COVID-19 worldwide and the reported death toll.'
Therefore, The Economist predicts 'the number of deaths from 2020 to 2021 when COVID-19 is not prevalent' from the statistics of the number of deaths in the past around the world, and compares it with the actual number of deaths. It reports the number of excess deaths calculated in each country in the world.
The table below shows the country name, aggregation period, the number of deaths due to COVID-19 reported by each country, the number of excess deaths calculated by The Economist, and the number of excess deaths per 10,000 people, in order from the left. The United States government reports that 558,060 people died from COVID-19 between March 8, 2020 and April 17, 2021, but The Economist calculated an excess of 590,000. The number is 7,490, which is higher than the government reports. In Russia, the number of reported deaths from April 1, 2020 to March 31, 2021 was 97,200, but the number of excess deaths was 494,610, and the number of reported deaths and the number of excess deaths. You can see that there is a big difference between.
The reported death toll from March 1, 2020 to February 28, 2021 in Japan was 7,880, but the number of excess deaths was minus 11,280. This The Economist analysis results by is, 'in the analysis of the present time the new coronavirus is not believed to have had a significant impact on the variation of the number of deaths' welfare research group reported the Ministry of Labor in April 2021 that the excess mortality It supports the results of the numerical analysis.
In the graph below, the dark line is the official announcement of the number of deaths by COVID-19, and the pink area shows the number of excess deaths calculated by The Economist. Looking at changes in the number of deaths in several states in the United States, we can see that the number of deaths due to COVID-19 increased explosively from March 2020 to April 20200 in New York and New Jersey. We can also see that the death toll increased around November 2020 in South Dakota, North Dakota, New Mexico, and West Virginia.
The transition of the number of deaths due to COVID-19 in Eastern European countries is like this. We can see that there is a large gap between the number of deaths reported by the government and the number of excess deaths calculated by The Economist compared to the United States. The Economist said, 'Russia is one of the countries with the largest gap between reported and mortality in the world. Russia has about 460,000 more than expected between April 2020 and February 2021. Although deaths have been recorded, the government reported only 85,000 deaths from COVID-19. '
The model for calculating the number of excess deaths of The Economist is published on the official GitHub repository.
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