Climate change is changing the 'season when people die the most'
It is known that the season when most people die in a year is 'winter', but from the results of analyzing 51 years of climate data and vital survey data, the 'summer death rate' is It turned out that it is increasing year by year.
Increased ratio of summer to winter deaths due to climate warming in Australia, 1968–2018 --Hangigan ---- Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health --Wiley Online Library
More people die in winter than summer, but climate change may see this reverse
The survey conducted by Ivan Charles Hannigan and others, who are active as data scientists specializing in environmental epidemiology at the University of Sydney, is based on vital survey data provided by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The data is extracted and compared with the climate data. Hannigan et al. Calculated the 'summer deaths' and 'winter deaths' for each year for people aged 55 and over living in Australia, and compared them with the temperature data for that year to determine the temperature and deaths. I investigated the relationship between.
As a result of this survey, the ratio of summer deaths and winter deaths was '73: 100' in 1968, but in 2018 it was '83: 100', which is a relative ratio of summer deaths. Turned out to have increased. Furthermore, when the number of deaths in this season was compared with temperature data, it was found that the number of deaths in summer and winter was almost equal to '1 to 1', especially in warmer years. It has also been confirmed that the tendency for the proportion of summer deaths to increase with each passing year was consistent regardless of state, gender, or cause of death (respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease, renal disease). ..
A 2017 study found that 'the decline in winter deaths outweighs the increase in summer deaths, and the net death toll is declining.' However, the study states that 'around the middle of the 21st century, the increase in summer deaths will prevail, and the net death toll will start to increase,' Hannigan and colleagues agree.
Heat and cold are closely related to health, and infectious diseases such as influenza tend to prevail in winter, so it is customary to say that 'winter mortality rate exceeds summer mortality rate', but heat is older. It is known to exacerbate chronic illnesses such as heart disease and kidney disease in the elderly. Hannigan et al. Noted that the Australian vital survey used this time continued to collect detailed and high-quality data for a long period of more than 50 years, 'at least to show the relationship between climate change and health. We need data for 30 to 50 years, but it is difficult to obtain detailed data for such a long period of time in low- and middle-income countries. ' He said the continuous collection of detailed data was particularly helpful in this study.
Hannigan et al. Said that climate data existed in the large state, but not in small groups such as cities, towns and villages, and that there was no data on the occupations of the survey subjects. In point, while acknowledging that there is a possibility that 'human beings will adapt to rising temperatures' in some way in the future, the results of this study answer the question 'Does climate change affect human health?' Claim to be one. He commented that the results would be useful for policies such as medical services, healthcare, housing, energy issues and vacation periods.
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