How are 'clusters' and 'super spreaders' affecting the spread of the new corona?
The important thing to prevent the spread of the new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) is to 'prevent the development of clusters,' the reason is summarized by the academic journal Science.
The science of superspreading
In late February 2020, pharmaceutical company Biogen held an annual meeting in Boston, USA. At that time, there were less than 20 cases of COVID-19 in the United States, but it is probable that one of the 200 participants in the conference was infected with COVID-19.
As a result, outbreaks (clusters) occurred among the conference participants. In addition, at least 97 family members and relatives who attended the conference and lived with people infected with COVID-19 were infected.
Biogen's annual conference was a large-scale event with many distant visitors, and eventually COVID-19 spread throughout Massachusetts and other states. According to the
At Biogen's annual conference, which triggered the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, various events around the world were also the source of the cluster. Not surprisingly, clusters have occurred not only in large-scale events, but also in bars, gyms, factories, schools, churches, ships, and other places where people gather, and it has been reported that clusters have also occurred in the White House. I will.
The virus spreads from an infected person to another healthy person. ' R0 ', which indicates how many people an infected person infects on average, is '2' for the new coronavirus. When R0 = 2, one infected person will generate two new infected persons, and the number of infected persons will increase explosively over time.
Of course, in the real world, how many people get infected from one infected person is different. Some people will not infect anyone, while others will spread the virus to many people, such as those who became the source of infection at Biogen's annual conference.
In the case of COVID-19, most infected people do not infect others with the virus. However, very few infected people infect many people with the virus, causing clusters. In fact, in the case of the new coronavirus, it has been reported that 80% of cases of infection are caused by only 10% of people. People who explode the number of infected people in this way are called '
Several studies have reported that '80% of cases of coronavirus infection are caused by only 10% of people' --GIGAZINE
In addition, an Indian study analyzing people infected with COVID-19 found that 60% of cases of infection were caused by only 8% of people. According to this study, 70% of infected people do not infect others with the virus.
There are other cases that show the dangers of superspreaders. A superspreader also participated in a wedding ceremony in Jordan in March 2020, which infected the bride's father with COVID-19. Studies have shown that the superspreaders who attended the wedding were estimated to have infected 76 of 360 guests with the virus, killing one of the participants.
In other words, it is necessary to stop the super spreader to prevent the pandemic of the new coronavirus. But how do you actually stop clustering with superspreaders?
Science says it's easy to do, avoiding the tightness, tightness, and closeness known in Japan as the ' three cs .' The common points of cluster generation are 'a place with poor ventilation', 'a space where people spend a lot of time', and 'a place where there is a high possibility that an unspecified number of people will come into contact with each other'. It also leads to avoiding.
In addition, a contact confirmation tool that notifies a person who may have been in close contact during the incubation period as a 'potentially infected ant' if it is found to be infected with COVID-19 is also important. By utilizing the contact confirmation tool, it is possible to prevent the birth of a super spreader by giving an opportunity for a person who may be infected to perform self-isolation or PCR test.
The official government contact confirmation app 'COCOA' has also been released in Japan.
The official new corona contact confirmation app 'COCOA' from the Japanese government has been released, and when it is actually installed, it looks like this --GIGAZINE
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in Science, Posted by logu_ii