US unemployment is 'underestimated', claiming true unemployment is 'more than 26%'
The epidemic of the new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) has hit economies around the world in unexpected ways. The impact is particularly large in the United States, where the number of newly infected
LISEP True Rate of Unemployment
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Exclusive: America's true unemployment rate --Axios
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The changes in the unemployment rate in the United States officially announced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the United States Ministry of Labor are as follows. The unemployment rate since 2000 reached 10% in October 2009 immediately after the Lehman shock , but then gradually declined to reach 3.5%, the lowest level in 20 years, in December 2019. It was. However, the unemployment rate has skyrocketed due to the COVID-19 epidemic. Only five months later, in April 2020, it reached 14.7%. Looking at the graph below, you can see at a glance how unusual the unemployment rate surge caused by COVID-19 is.
The epidemic of COVID-19, which began around March 2020 in the United States, continues to expand, and as of October 20, 2020, the number of newly infected people has reached a record high of 70,000 per day. On the other hand, the unemployment rate is showing a recovery trend despite the spread of the epidemic, and the unemployment rate in September 2020 was '7.9%' according to the official government announcement.
However, Gene Ludwig, who worked for the United States Treasury, argued that the government's definition of unemployment was problematic. The definition of unemployed in the United States is to meet the two conditions of 'not working' and '(if you have no illness) you have been looking for a job in the last 4 weeks'. Regarding these two conditions, Mr. Ludwig said, ''Not working' means'I'm not making any money', excluding those who make only a few dollars a week.' He pointed out the fact that the unemployment rate has been revised downward, citing the defect that 'people who have given up job hunting for a certain period of time due to the COVID-19 epidemic are excluded.'
To revise the downward revision of the unemployment rate by this definition, Ludwig 'does not have a full-time job (more than 35 hours a week)' and 'wants to get a full-time job, but at that point He insists that he should be counted as unemployed if he meets either 'not' or 'not earning the minimum living wage (about 2.1 million yen per year)'. The unemployment rate based on this definition was calculated from the data of the Bureau of Labor Statistics as the 'True Rate of Unemployment'.
Below is a chart that graphs the true unemployment rate calculated by Mr. Ludwig and compares it with the official government unemployment rate. The blue graph is the true unemployment rate and the white graph is the official government unemployment rate. As of September 2020, the true unemployment rate is '26.1%' and the official government unemployment rate is '7.9%'.
We also know that the true unemployment rate of blacks and Hispanics is higher than that of whites. Below, the green graph is the true unemployment rate for blacks, the lavender-colored graph is the true unemployment rate for Hispanics, and the blue graph is the true unemployment rate for whites. Comparing the true unemployment rate as of September 2020, blacks are 32.0%, Hispanics are 30.8%, and whites are 24.3%.
The true unemployment rate of women is higher than that of men. Below, the green graph is the true unemployment rate for women and the lavender color is the true unemployment rate for men. As of September 2020, the true unemployment rate is 30.8% for women and 22.3% for men.
'I'm shocked. One in four people who want to work can't earn the minimum living wages they need to live,' said Ludwig.
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