Mar 07, 2024 05:00:00

Expert statistician Nate Silver shows a strong correlation between coronavirus death rates and state partisanship

The United States has a two-party system consisting of the conservative Republican Party and the liberal Democratic Party, and is characterized by differing political party affiliations depending on the state, with Minnesota having a strong tendency to support the Republican Party and Oklahoma having a strong

tendency to support the Democratic Party. is. Nate Silver , a prominent American statistician, has shown that the death rate due to the new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) is strongly related to the state's political party support.

Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make you happy.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/fine-ill-run-a-regression-analysis

The COVID-19 epidemic started in early 2020, but in the United States, until vaccination began, there was almost no difference in the death rate due to COVID-19, regardless of the state's Republican or Democratic leanings.

However, after 2021, when vaccinations began, the death rate was higher in Republican-leaning states where

vaccination rates were lower .

In fact, the number of COVID-19 deaths per million people in West Virginia, which is strongly Republican, is estimated to be 3,454, while in Florida, which is strongly Republican, the number of deaths from COVID-19 is estimated to be 2,992, and the number of deaths per million people is 2,992. It has been confirmed that the death rate from COVID-19 is higher in states with a strong tendency to support the Republican Party, with 1,881 deaths in Maine, which has a strong tendency to support the Democratic Party, and 1,210 deaths in Vermont, which has a strong tendency to support the Democratic Party. The elderly population in these states is approximately the same.

To support this claim, Silver performed a regression analysis . First, Silver ran a simple regression analysis to confirm that a state's political party affiliation changes the death rate from COVID-19. The results confirmed that the COVID-19 mortality rate in Republican or Democratic states has changed significantly since February 2021, when COVID-19 vaccines began to be widely administered to the public. .

Furthermore, when we performed a multiple regression analysis that added the percentage of the state's population aged 65 and over to the analysis, it became clear that the mortality rate due to COVID-19 was significantly increasing in states with an aging population. . However, this result did not affect the association between COVID-19 mortality and state partisanship, indicating that mortality rates vary depending on state partisanship regardless of age.

Silver said the death rate from COVID-19 will increase without vaccination. Previous research has also

shown that Republicans have relatively lower rates of COVID-19 vaccination than Democrats. Taken together, it seems that a state's partisanship, whether it supports Republicans or Democrats, clearly reflects the high death rate from COVID-19.

In addition, since age and vaccination rates alone can explain most of the variation in COVID-19 mortality rates, Silver said that age and vaccination status are factors that influence COVID-19 mortality rates between different regions. points out.