Apr 16, 2020 11:55:00

Research results that it is necessary to keep a social distance until 2022

Social distance strategies such as 'Avoid going out' and 'Keeping distance between people' are effective as a pandemic countermeasure, but researchers at Harvard University have sustained or intermittent social distance until at least 2022. He showed that the strategy might need to continue. Even if the pandemic seems to have converged at first glance, the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) may be restored by 2024, and it will be monitored continuously.

Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period | Science
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793

Warm weather may have no impact on COVID-19 – Harvard Gazette
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/04/covid-19-may-not-go-away-in-warmer-weather-as-do-colds/

A research team led by Dr. Stephen Kistler, a fellow of Harvard School of Public Health, and a doctoral student Christine Teddyjanto, has developed two viruses that are genetically close to SARS-CoV-2: HCoV-HKU1 and HCoV-OC43. Used to model how SARS-CoV-2 will spread in the coming months. As of April 2020, these two factors were not taken into consideration because it is unlikely that a vaccine or specific medicine will be completed soon.

As a result, the 'increasing temperature' did not stop the infection in any of the multiple scenarios. In the case of general cold, most of the people are infected with the virus and acquire immunity by spring, but in the case of SARS-CoV-2, many people do not acquire immunity by spring, even if the temperature rises. Even if the infection rate decreases, there is still plenty of room for the virus to spread. Although there was a tendency to reduce the spread of infection in some scenarios, 'without intervention, seasonal variation alone is not enough,' the researchers say.

SARS-CoV-2 is often unknown, and one of them is the duration of immunity that the infected person acquires. If lifelong immunity can be obtained, infected people will not be infected with the virus for more than 5 years after the pandemic, but if the immunity does not last for a year, the pandemic occurring in April 2020 in the United States It is thought that another pandemic will occur within the year after the convergence.

Researchers also investigated how 'social distance strategies' and the like affect. As a result of the survey, the combination of 'effective test to monitor recurrence of disease' and 'to keep social distance' was most effective in suppressing the number of infected people and preventing pressure on the medical system. That's right. Researchers also say that this scenario allows people to gradually gain immunity to the virus.

In many countries, transportation stops and shops are closed, and it is said that social distance strategy is a trade-off with economic damage. But health scholar Asish Jar pointed out that the idea that business interests and public health interests conflict was false. If you remove the social distance strategy early to save the economy, many people will get sick and the frightened people will stay home, and no economic boost will be realized.

To mitigate the social distance strategy, the number of new cases has been declining over the past two weeks, with 500,000 tests performed daily per day, strengthening the healthcare system and exhausting in preparation for the next epidemic. Kistler says he needs to rest the doctors and nurses who have done so. It is likely that another pandemic will occur in winter after the first wave of the pandemic is over.

And in order to prevent medical pressure, an intermittent or continuous social distance strategy is required until 2022. With the development of therapeutic agents and the increase in emergency medical capacity, it is possible that the social distance strategy can be canceled earlier, but even if SARS-CoV-2 appears to disappear, it will disappear in 2024. Up until now there is a possibility of resurrection, so it is considered necessary to monitor.