How will the new coronavirus reach the end?

Regarding the new coronavirus, Microsoft's founder Bill Gates

said that it will 'improve in the United States in the summer without waiting', while WHO said, 'Recoverers of the new coronavirus acquired immunity. Since it is unknown whether or not it is, the movement to lift restrictions such as business suspension and going out of control will also be slow. ”It is announced that the situation of the end of the new coronavirus remains uncertain. Therefore, The Mercury News, a daily newspaper in the state of California in the United States, discussed 'how the United States will move toward the removal of urban blockades' based on the opinions of several experts.

Coronavirus: Can we avoid a second wave of infections?

In Wuhan, China, which is said to be the source of the new coronavirus, the city blockade that lasted for 76 days on April 8, 2020 was lifted, but the residents of Wuhan were feeling uneasy after the cancellation. It is reported that

Meanwhile, Karen Smith, a former public health official in California who continues to block the city, told The Mercury News: `` To my knowledge, no one has a concrete plan for the future. A lot of people are waiting for someone's opinion. '

In California, home-wide orders were issued on March 19, and similar measures were taken on March 16, three days earlier, in the Bay Area , the economic center of the state. It is being done. Since then, growth in the infection rate has slowed, but California's public health officials and Governor Gavin Newtham believe that the blockade will not be lifted for the foreseeable future.

Sarah Cody, a health officer in Santa Clara County, said, 'In order to end the new coronavirus, enough people have the new coronavirus to achieve an effective treatment, vaccine or

herd immunity. There are three things we need to do to get an infectious disease, but none of them are realized. ”

Even at the time of writing, the number of people infected with the new coronavirus was 524,514, and even in the United States, which has the highest number in the world, it is said that only 0.14% of people have this disease. On the other hand, a new study that reviewed the susceptibility of the new coronavirus suggests that 82% of the population must acquire immunity to the new coronavirus in order to obtain collective immunity. It is impractical to wait for group immunity to be acquired.

Research results that the infectivity of the new coronavirus is twice as much as the conventional prediction-GIGAZINE

Therefore, the emergence of a vaccine that is effective against the new coronavirus is desired, but Professor Stanford epidemiologist Stephen Ruby said, `` The vaccine was developed only once enough to stop the outbreak. No, that's what happened in the 2011 Hollywood movie Contain, 'he said, saying early vaccine development is hopeless.

In order to lift the urban blockade in such a situation, 'it is judged that the medical system can effectively control the rapid increase of new infection cases without extensive urban blockade'. That. However, making this judgment requires a very large-scale test to understand 'people who are already infected with the new coronavirus or who have been in contact with that person'. According to a report from the think tank American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy , the number of new coronaviruses that can be tested in the United States is 750,000 per week, and 2.4 million Americans have been tested so far. is.

Another point is that the medical system should have enough room to prepare for a sudden outbreak. This requires that the number of new hospitalizations for new coronavirus infections for at least 2 weeks needs to settle, but it is expected to vary by region. As a result, Smith believes that the state's and local health authorities will be able to maintain the medical system even if a new outbreak occurs, and then the infection will subside until the home waiting order is lifted in each region. I will.

Also, since the risk of infection with the new coronavirus and the immunity that minimizes the effects of infection can differ depending on the age, Professor Ruby believes that “gradual removal of restrictions by age” is rational. “We have to get back to work, but young people are the first to get back to work,” said Professor Ruby, because older data show that older people are at greater risk. It's clearly high. '

Furthermore, it is believed that the ban on events and events will be phased, as well as the areas and age groups where restrictions are lifted. Mr Smith said, 'The types and scales of economic activities that will be lifted will be gradually expanded, and concerts, parades, sports events, etc. will be the last.'

Experts point out that even if the urban blockade is lifted little by little in this way, you must be careful. 'In the process of ending the new coronavirus, there will be many small waves of infections,' said Robin Garshon, a professor of public health at New York University.

Regarding the society after his death, Mr. Smith said, 'The need for new coronavirus measures such as wearing masks in public places and maintaining a distance of about 2 m will remain even after restrictions such as urban blockade are lifted. By the way, we will become accustomed to wearing masks in public. '

in Note, Posted by log1l_ks