Why do people 'jump to illogical conclusions'?
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Some people derive arbitrary conclusions from prerequisites, such as, 'He dislikes me because he has a low tone when speaking to me.' Blogger Itamar Schatz talks about the mechanism of how people jump to conclusions and how to deal with it.
Jumping to Conclusions: When People Decide Based on Insufficient Information – Effectiviology
https://effectiviology.com/jumping-to-conclusions/
Schatz said that 'jumping to conclusions' is often an exception, but that some patterning is possible. The patterns include 'rules of thumb' that 'restaurants with dirty windows serve bad dishes', 'fortune-telling' that 'students stumbled on the exercises and think they will get a red point in the test', and ' `` Good morning '' has no enthusiasm, so I'm sure you must hate me '', `` Sentiment reading '', `` Women don't have this kind of hobby, so they would dislike this activity There are many things that I heard somewhere, such as 'labeling'.
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The cause of jumping to the conclusion is a system called ' heuristic ' mounted on the human brain. The heuristic is close to ' approximation ', and it is a system that considers something that is not the correct answer but is close to the correct answer. This heuristic reduces the accuracy of human-derived answers, but increases the speed of judgment and decision-making. As a result, heuristics allow the human brain to trade off accuracy and speed.
'Using heuristics to draw conclusions from less information often leads to reasonable conclusions,' Schatz said. However, heuristics also create cases that jump to arbitrary conclusions. More or less people tend to jump to conclusions, but the cause is ' cognitive bias ', which causes the cognitive system to function in an imperfect way.
An example of jumping to conclusions caused by cognitive bias is, 'You should not hear him, because he is a politician. A politician cannot care about the public.' Sentence. Starting from the fact that he is a politician, this sentence justifies the unfounded conclusion that 'don't listen to him.' The text makes the mistake of 'arbitrarily generalizing the characteristics of the group of politicians and applying them to 'he'.' Indeed, the truth of 'don't listen to him' is a logical problem.
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Schatz also explains how to avoid jumping to conclusions.
1: Calm down and think again about the situation without immediately believing that “intuition is right”
2: Ask yourself the 'information needed to draw conclusions'
3: Gather as much information as possible before making a hypothesis
4: Think about multiple hypotheses instead of one hypothesis
5: Examine your logic and identify potential mistakes
6: I doubt what I saw
7: Verify that the assumptions are true
8: Ask yourself if it is too early
9: Check if the hypothesis you choose is the most appropriate of the evidence-based theories
10: In the past similar case, remember whether you jumped to the conclusion
By Prostock-studio
Schatz says, 'If a defect is found in a product, but the company is' incompetent 'Nanoha fact,' malicious lies 'is different from the' typified by the example think of, stare truth of the fact thinking ' Hanlon Razor's razor is also recommended.
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