Why can not China dominate the global economy?

China, which became the world's second largest economy, said that in 2032, China will surpass the United States and become the world's bestExpectationThere is a caution warning in the United States that China will dominate the world economy, such as issuance. However, I stayed in China since 2009 and I teach at Peking UniversityChristopher BardingThe professor reveals his view that "China can not rule the world". The cause is that it is a structural problem of the existence of China's specific circumstances.

Maybe China Can not Take Over the World - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-12-03/maybe-china-can-t-take-over-the-world

In China taking socio-economicism, it is sometimes difficult for capitalist countries to make difficulties due to various regulations, and things may progress at a speed that overwhelms other countries in economic and scientific fields. For example, it is easy to understand social experiments of automatic driving cars, genome editing with ethical problems and research on cloning technology.

Fully automated driving car of Baidu development succeeded in public road driving test in Beijing city - GIGAZINE


Using genomic editing technology 'CRISPR / Cas 9', it turned out that 86 genetic modifications were already made in China - GIGAZINE


Two "clone monkeys" with exact same genes in China finally born - GIGAZINE


China who strengthens its presence as the biggest economy with the world's largest population increasing day by day Although the voice that "the day the economy dominates the world is near" can be heard, Professor Valding of Beijing University said " He has a skeptical view on the Chinese dominance theory. Mr. Valding says that economists and economic commentators overlook the "structural elements" that are said to be inherent in China when they advocate the Chinese threat theory by advertising the achievements of Chinese enterprises about.

For example, mobile payment services using mobile phones and smartphones are spreading in China to overwhelm other countries in China. Mr. Valding thinks that there are two "structural elements" about the cause of this mobile payment service enrichment being unique to China and the reason why a huge service was born.

The first structural element is that in China the financial infrastructure such as banking system did not come up, many of the retailers liked cash settlement, credit cards were not popular. The second is that there are huge services in China that divide the market of Tencent's "WeChat" and Alibaba's "Alipay". It is a distinctive world not seen in other countries where the two companies are bisecting the mobile payment service market and other services are virtually absent.

Under such circumstances inherent in China, in addition to sending messages, when you buy or sell objects, use services, lend or borrow money, you can use these mobile payment services instead of cash A behavior style to use on a daily basis was born. In China, the world's most advanced mobile payment service network is built, the amount settled through mobile phones in 2016 is more than 5 trillion dollars (about 540 trillion yen) It is one size.


However, Mr. Valding, in economically rich countries of the West, East Asia, various payment methods such as credit card, debit card, check, mobile payment service such as PayPal, Apple Pay, etc. are prepared, It is pointed out that there is a difference that it is convenient and digitalized. In the settlement system like China, there is a disadvantage that the option of settlement is deprived, so it will not spread.

In addition to mobile payment services Mr. Valding points out that retail store shop business is difficult in China. It is China that occupies 1/4 of the world's "city with population over 500,000 people", but because it can not possess real estate (land), the expansion of store size is restricted. For that reason, it seems that there is uniqueity that Alibaba, JD.com, etc. have developed as online mail-order sales that deliver goods to consumers directly from warehouses that store goods become popular.

In China where logistics was poor, Alibaba and JD.com have built their own efficient logistics network and succeeded in dominating online mail order throughout China.


Mr. Valding does not deny that Chinese companies are producing technologies that are noteworthy. However, I think that it is impossible for things produced in China to transplant and succeed in different environments, ignoring the structural elements. Success in China will not immediately pass in other countries. Although it is possible to apply the successful method in China if it is in the same environment as China, it is clear that mere fitting is difficult if Chinese companies struggle to advance worldwide. China, which conducts research and development of innovative technologies such as artificial intelligence on a national scale, is highly likely to produce innovative things in the future, but it can not be applied to the needs of customers who live under completely different conditions Mr. Valding points out that remarkable progress can be kept on the coastline of China as well.