It is predicted that China's space station "Amagi No. 1" in an uncontrollable state will fall to "somewhere on earth" around January 2018

Space station testing machine operated by China "Amemiya 1"Announced the latest forecast that it will enter the Earth's atmosphere in the range of 1 month before and after January 2018 was announced. Amenomiya No. 1 has gradually dropped altitude since "uncontrollable" was announced by the Chinese government in 2016, and its final falling point is still "unpredictable".

Tiangong - 1 Reentry | The Aerospace Corporation
http://www.aerospace.org/cords/reentry-predictions/tiangong-1-reentry/

China's Out-Of-Control Tiangong-1 Space Station to Crash Back to Earth Early 2018
http://www.newsweek.com/china-tiangong-1-out-control-space-station-crash-earth-2018-666836

Amemiya No. 1 was launched by China in 2011, and operation was carried out as an experimental aircraft for the future full-scale space station construction. It was possible to carry out the experiment internally by having the experimental equipment room and the material storage room with the body with the main body part length of about 10 meters and mass of 8.5 tons.


After putting in orbit, I was repeating the experiment of docking with the spacecraft launched later, which was the first Amagi shrine which people actually got on and tested, but since operation was stopped science around the world It will be pointed out that "Control is not being done" from the person. And in September 2016, we acknowledge that the Chinese government officially is out of control. Temple No. 1, which is no longer under control, slowly slows down due to the slight atmospheric air present in the orbit, gradually attracted by the attraction of the earth and gradually lowers the altitude.

Although it was Impression No. 1 which has repeatedly corrected the orbital altitude several times so far, it is said that the "leave state" has been continued at the end of the 2015 December revision. It is inevitable to continue to lower the altitude as it is when artificial countermeasures are no longer done.


A non-profit enterprise managed with funds from the US government "The Aerospace CorporationThe forecast of the falling period of Amagi No. 1 announced by the following graph is. Amemiya No. 1 which has gradually lowered its altitude from the earth orbit around 350 km altitude drops altitude at a stroke when it continues to fall at this pace and then enters the atmosphere at that moment. The timing of actually entering the atmosphere is not yet clearly understood, and it is predicted that it is somewhere in December 2017 to February 2018.


Although it is thought that Tenshi No. 1 which entered the atmosphere is exposed to high temperature by adiabatic compression, it is thought that most parts will burn out, but the possibility that large parts such as the mounted rocket engine will fall to the ground without burning out Has been pointed out. The area where falling is predicted is a wide range from 43 degrees south to 43 degrees north. Also, it is impossible to identify the final falling point unless the timing of the entry into the atmosphere is known clearly, and it is thought that it is six to eight hours before the fall that the place is actually found.

Although I know only "falling" for the time being, although it is the situation of Amagi No. 1, which is a situation in which I do not know well when and where I fall, the fact that two thirds of the earth's surface is showing off the ocean, Given the distribution of densely populated areas, it is considered unlikely to damage people or buildings. Also, when entering the atmosphere, a dazzling light like a meteorite is expected to be visible for about 10 seconds.