China's Long March 5B rocket is expected to fall 'out of control' to Earth, current location here



Several media outlets have reported that the rocket 'Long March 5B' launched by China on April 29, 2021 will fall out of control around May 8-9, 2021. It was. The rocket, which is about 30 meters long and weighs about 21 tons, which is equivalent to a 10-story condominium, is expected to fall somewhere on the surface of the earth without burning out because it is huge.

A Space Debris Expert Weighs in on the Massive Chinese Rocket Body Falling Uncontrollably to Earth. | By The Aerospace Corporation | May, 2021 | Medium

https://aerospacecorp.medium.com/a-massive-chinese-rocket-is-falling-uncontrollably-to-earth-db7c7b32d773

Chinese rocket stage predicted to reenter atmosphere around May 8 --SpaceNews
https://spacenews.com/chinese-rocket-stage-predicted-to-reenter-atmosphere-around-may-8/

Long March 5B, a Chinese Rocket, Expected to Tumble Back to Earth --The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/06/science/china-rocket-crash-long-march-5b.html

US Department of Defense spokesman Mike Howard said on May 4, 'The US Space Force is tracking the location of China's Long March 5B, but the exact point of fall is expected to be around May 8 again. It can only be identified a few hours before the entry. ' According to media reports, the rocket was launched from the Wenchang Spacecraft Launch Site on April 28.

After the launch, the rocket succeeded in putting the core module of the space station 'Tengu ' under construction by China into orbit, but after that it fell into an uncontrollable state and the drop point when re-entering the earth There is no prospect of.

Based on the data released by NASA etc., when you access the site OrbTrack that displays the orbit of artificial satellites etc. in real time, Long March 5 B (CZ-5B R /) flying in orbit in an uncontrollable state You can see the current location of B). At the time of writing, the rocket is located above the Indian Ocean.



In addition, Mr. Yuuo Kashiwai , the author of OrbTrack, said, 'When the altitude of the object in orbit decreases, the difference between the actual position and the calculated position becomes large, and the accurate position is not displayed, so it can not be used for fall prediction. and N ' says .



According to Marlon Sorge, chief engineer at the In-Orbit and Re-entry Debris Research Center (CORDS) , about 20-40% of the mass falls to the surface without burning out. Since the Long March 5B weighs about 21 tons, it is thought that an object of about 5 to 7 tons will collide with the surface of the earth this time. In addition, it seems that it is relatively unlikely that rocket fragments will fall into cities and densely populated areas and cause human damage.

Nevertheless, the rocket's fall point is expected to fall within the range of 41.5 degrees north latitude to 41.5 degrees south latitude, where most of the world's population lives, so it has received a lot of attention.

Jonathan McDowell of the Harvard Smithsonian Astrophysical Center told The New York Times, 'Usually, after the rocket's mission is complete, the engine is reignited and dropped into the ocean or elsewhere where damage is minimal. But China didn't do that. In the last three decades, only China has put such a large rocket in orbit and then dropped it somewhere. '

Aerospace Corporation, a non-profit organization funded by the US government, has estimated the re-entry time to be around 16 hours from 3:43 Coordinated Universal Time (12:43 Japan time). If the rocket falls during this time, the debris could fall into Sudan in northeastern Africa.

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