It is after 2014 that the price of hard disk will return to the pre-Thai flood level in 2011

ByAndiH

Thailand was flooded for more than 3 months due to the heavy rain that fell in the summer of 2011. As a result, major damage has come up, such as a flooded factory of a major HDD manufacturerHDD price soared from the end of October 2011. Since thenSupply capability did not recover, and prices stabilized where calm to a certain extentAlthough it was in the form to do, it seems that this situation will be improved sooner than 2014.

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According to the survey company IHS iSuppli, from the market survey, we conclude that although the HDD supply recovered from the time immediately after the flood, the average wholesale price will not fall until 2014.

As of the third quarter of 2011, the average wholesale price of HDD was $ 51 (about 4060 yen). However, in the fourth quarter affected by the flood, it soared to 66 dollars (about 5250 yen). It is also maintaining $ 66 in the first quarter of 2012, which is expected to remain the same in the second quarter.


In terms of shipments, it was 173 million units in the third quarter of 2011 before the flood, down 29% in the fourth quarter of 2011. Production capacity will recover gradually and be restored by the third quarter of 2012, so that it will ship 145 million units in the first quarter of 2012 and 159 million units in the second quarter of 2012 Mirage will finally return to the pre-flooding level of 176 million units in the third quarter of 2012.

But Fang Zhang, an analyst at IHS, says that prices will not return to the same level even if shipments return to levels before the flood. Seagate and Samsung, Western Digital and HGST have two large mergers, the HDD manufacturers have increased their market share from 62% before the flood to 85%. This overwhelming share makes it possible to maintain the wholesale price at a relatively high price, and the retail price has not easily fallen as well.

In the second quarter of 2012, PC OEM manufacturers and HDD manufacturers have signed long-term contracts (LTAs) for the stable supply of HDDs. Although the quantity of HDD was secured by this, the price of HDD was fixed at 20% higher level than before flooding. Even if all OEM manufacturers finished this contract at the end of 2012, the decline in HDD prices will not proceed rapidly, and as a result, it will be 2014 years to reach the price level before flooding I will.

If there are two years, new technology comes out, there is a possibility that there is a possibility that you do not need to rely on HDD in the first place ... ....