What is the real problem in the 'chaotic transitional period' between 'the present' when AI is transforming society and 'the future of AGI'?
Molly Kinder, who has led AI-related projects at
How to help knowledge workers who lose their jobs to AI
https://www.platformer.news/how-to-help-knowledge-workers-who-lose-their-jobs-to-ai/
How to help people who lose their jobs to AI - YouTube
The 'Messy Middle' - by Molly Kinder
https://mollykinder2.substack.com/p/the-messy-middle
Since around 2022, Kinder has been leading a multi-year project at the Brookings Institution to investigate how generative AI will transform work. Based on this research, Kinder predicts that the changes in employment due to AI will fall into three extreme futures: one where 'all jobs are replaced by AI,' an optimistic view where 'there will be little impact,' and a 'messy middle ground' in between.
Kinder refers to a situation where the impact of AI on the labor market is not yet significant as 'Reality 1.' This refers to a state where, although news of job losses is frequent, the overall labor market data is generally favorable. In contrast, he defines 'Reality 3' as a future where artificial general intelligence (AGI) is achieved and AI takes on all jobs. In this future, while many jobs will be replaced by AI, a huge economic surplus will be created, and the focus will be on how to redistribute it.
Some in the AI industry believe that the problems associated with 'Reality 1' will be resolved once 'Reality 3' is reached. However, Kinder argues that this dichotomy is wrong, and that the long and difficult intermediate period, 'Reality 2,' is the real problem. Kinder calls this 'Reality 2' a 'chaotic intermediate period,' during which most jobs will remain, while certain occupations may be intensely affected, with the impact being very significant politically and socially.
According to Kinder, the most vulnerable are 'intellectual jobs that can be completed solely on a computer,' which have benefited from advancements in computer technology. Kinder suggested that white-collar jobs such as law, finance, consulting, and sales, as well as administrative jobs, are particularly susceptible to the impact of AI.
Kinder explains that previous computer technologies have worked to increase the productivity of knowledge workers. The economy has been dominated by skills-based technological innovation, which has continuously improved the productivity of knowledge workers, expanded the demand for their skills, and increased wages. However, he argues that the emergence of large-scale language models (LLMs) is significantly different from previous technological innovations in that it has the potential to replace the very advanced cognitive abilities that have previously been performed solely by humans.
In the 'San Francisco Consensus,' a vision shared by tech industry elites, primarily in Silicon Valley, regarding the future of AI, the solution to the 'chaotic interim period' is considered to be 'the introduction of a basic income that distributes the surplus generated by AI.' However, Kinder argues that this is impossible. Traditionally, the majority of jobs necessary to maintain the functions of society in real time have been less rewarding than those of knowledge workers. However, what AI will take away is not jobs that need to be done directly by humans, but rather intellectual work that can be done solely by computers.
Kinder poses the question, 'If high-paying jobs like consultants and software engineers are replaced by AI, and that high income is compensated for by basic income, will there be people willing to take on manual labor that isn't replaced by AI for less pay?' On the other hand, if the amount of basic income is kept low, those whose jobs are taken by AI will harbor strong anger towards politics and society. Kinder states that this friction will be a crucial issue in the 'chaotic interim period.' In fact, Elon Musk's proposal of a 'universal high income,' where the government provides benefits, as a way to address unemployment caused by AI, has drawn much criticism from X users and experts.
Elon Musk's suggestion that a 'universal high income' program should be implemented to provide benefits to those laid off by AI has sparked widespread criticism - GIGAZINE
The transition from 'Reality 1,' where we currently reside, to 'Reality 3,' where AGI is achieved, won't happen suddenly. Kinder pointed out that this transition itself is crucial and will determine whether we can actually reach the ideal 'Reality 3' that Silicon Valley envisions. If we make the wrong choices during this chaotic transitional period, we could face a fatal future, such as a government that heavily restricts AI development or a social division similar to what occurred in post-industrial societies .
Kinder recommended more targeted interventions, proposing policies to slow and manage the pace of job losses due to AI, support for companies that continue to hire and train young people, and mechanisms for companies that reduce hiring of young people to fund vocational training. He also indicated that if there becomes a shortage of high-quality white-collar workers, the government will need to implement policies to create new jobs.
Kinder also revealed that he is leaving the Brookings Institution to start a new organization in order to seriously address these challenges. 'The analysis has been done enough. What we need now are the answers. We don't just want to research the transition to AI, we want to actually create solutions,' Kinder said.
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