The British government has developed a 'murder prediction system' that can identify people who are likely to become murderers

The UK Ministry of Justice is secretly developing a 'homicide prediction system' to identify people who are likely to become murderers, according to the UK civil society group Statewatch. The initiative was launched in January 2023 by the then

https://www.statewatch.org/news/2025/april/uk-ministry-of-justice-secretly-developing-murder-prediction-system/

UK creating 'murder prediction' tool to identify people most likely to kill | Crime | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/apr/08/uk-creating-prediction-tool-to-identify-people-most-likely-to-kill

The murder prediction project was detailed in several public documents obtained by Statewatch through a Freedom of Information request, including the Ministry of Justice's Data Protection Impact Assessment, an Internal Risk Assessment and a Data Sharing Agreement with Greater Manchester Police.

The homicide prediction project aims to improve the Offender Risk Assessment System (OASys) used in the UK criminal justice system, using data science techniques to improve homicide risk assessments. Personal data from up to 500,000 people was shared to develop the tool.

A Ministry of Justice spokesman said: 'The Homicide Prediction Project is run for research purposes only, using data on convicted offenders held by the Prison and Probation Service and the police to better understand the risk of people on probation committing serious violent crime.'

But Statewatch said the data included information on suspects, victims, witnesses, missing people and people in protective custody, as well as 'health markers' on mental health, addiction, self-harm, suicide and disability that it hopes will 'have significant predictive power.'

Sophia Lyall, a researcher at Statewatch, criticized the Murder Prediction Project as 'a ruthless and dystopian attempt by the government to develop a crime prediction system.' In fact, a past study published by the UK Ministry of Justice (PDF file) reported that while the algorithm showed high accuracy for white people, it was less accurate for Asian, black and mixed race defendants. Statewatch argued that 'the system developed by the Murder Prediction Project is discriminatory and violates the principle of presumption of innocence and fundamental human rights, and is a major problem.'

'Putting resources into these systems is the antithesis of fundamental security measures like providing assistance and welfare,' Lyall said, warning that relying on quick technological solutions could actually make society less safe and less well-being.

According to the British daily newspaper The Guardian, the project was originally called the 'Homicide Prediction Project,' but was renamed 'Sharing Data to Improve Risk Assessment.'