The El Niño phenomenon that brought record heat in 2023 has almost disappeared, and the opposite 'La Niña phenomenon' is now occurring



In 2023, temperatures rose in countries around the world, including Japan,

making it the 'hottest year on record' with the highest average temperature since statistics began. In Japan, temperatures are believed to have risen as a result of remnants of the La Niña phenomenon that lasted from autumn 2021 to winter 2022/2023, and globally, the atmosphere is thought to have been warmed by the El Niño phenomenon that began in spring 2023, but it has been pointed out that there is a possibility that the La Niña phenomenon will occur again in 2024.

La Niña is coming, raising the chances of a dangerous Atlantic hurricane season – an atmospheric scientist explains this climate phenomenon
https://theconversation.com/la-nina-is-coming-raising-the-chances-of-a-dangerous-atlantic-hurricane-season-an-atmospheric-scientist-explains-this-climate-phenomenon-228595

The Japan Meteorological Agency explains the El Niño and La Niña phenomena as follows:

The El Niño phenomenon is a phenomenon in which sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean from near the International Date Line to the coast of South America become higher than average and continue for about a year. Conversely, a phenomenon in which sea surface temperatures in the same ocean area remain lower than average is called the La Niña phenomenon, and both occur every few years. It is believed that the El Niño and La Niña phenomena can be factors in abnormal weather all over the world, including Japan.



Regarding the outlook for May to November 2024, the JMA states, 'There is a high probability (90%) that the El Niño phenomenon will end and conditions will return to normal during the spring of 2024. There is also a possibility that normal conditions will continue into the fall (40%), but there is a higher probability (60%) that a La Niña phenomenon will occur.'

According to Pedro Dinezio, an atmospheric and oceanographic scientist at the University of Colorado, the transition to La Niña is expected to accelerate in 2024, and it is unclear how long it will last.

When the La Niña phenomenon occurs, precipitation increases in Japan in the spring and temperaturesrise in summer from northern Japan to northeastern China.



In the troposphere of the equatorial Pacific, a phenomenon called the '

Walker circulation ' occurs, in which air circulates from the ground to the upper layers in a large east-west direction. During the La Niña phenomenon, these circulations intensify, causing stormy conditions in the fall near Indonesia where the updrafts occur, and dry conditions in the eastern Pacific where the air descends. From the northwestern United States to the Caribbean, precipitation decreases in the spring and fall, so Dinezio points out that 'the rain that fell in the winter of 2023 will likely hold out for about a year, but there is a possibility of serious water shortages in the second and third years.'



During the winter, Japan tends to have high pressure in the west and low pressure in the east,

which results in lower temperatures.



Looking around the world, there will be more rain around the Amazon and Australia. Australia was hit by major floods during the last La Niña event, so caution is needed this time as well. On the other hand, droughts will occur in Chile, Argentina, Central Asia, and the Middle East when the La Niña event occurs.

In the United States, hurricanes occurring from summer to autumn are expected to intensify, and dry air could lead to an increase in fires. 'As the world experienced in 2023, El Niño and La Niña phenomena can worsen temperatures and cause extraordinary amounts of precipitation. Since the summer of 2023, the world has been hit by 10 consecutive months of record high temperatures,' Dinezio summarized.

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