With the 13-month record-high heat streak finally over, what's next?
The 13 months from June 2023 to June 2024 will be record-breaking, with air and sea surface temperatures 0.25 degrees higher than normal. July temperatures were slightly lower than last July, but experts point out that this does not mean the problems surrounding climate change are being solved.
Earth has just ended a 13-month streak of record heat – here's what to expect next
According to Christopher Marchant, a climatologist at the University of Reading in the UK, July 2023 was 0.28 degrees Celsius warmer than the previous record heat wave of July 2019. Although July 2024 is expected to be lower than the previous year, ending the 13-month streak, the extremely high temperatures are still not over.
In fact, July 2024 will be 1.48 degrees warmer than July before the Industrial Revolution, of which about 1.3 degrees is thought to be due to global warming. Climate change does not proceed at a constant pace, but there may be some cooler temperatures along the way.
The El Niño phenomenon is behind the fluctuations in the pace of temperature rise. The El Niño phenomenon raises the global average temperature through rising sea temperatures, but between one El Niño event and the next, there is the La Niña phenomenon, which lowers temperatures.
This cycle's El Niño event will peak around the end of 2023 and then enter a neutral state before transitioning into La Niña in July 2024, thus putting an end to the streak.
The El Niño phenomenon that brought record heat in 2023 has almost disappeared, and now the opposite 'La Niña phenomenon' is occurring - GIGAZINE
Although the 2023-2024 El Niño phenomenon was powerful, it is not enough to fully explain the unusually high temperatures over the past 13 months, so other factors are likely to have contributed to the rise in temperatures.
For example, the 11-year sunspot cycle and a rapid increase in the greenhouse gas methane may have warmed the planet.
In any case, while La Niña will result in lower global temperatures for the time being, experts say that this will not reverse the climate change problems we had before 2023.
'El Niño acts like a ratchet that stops the gears from going in the wrong direction,' Merchant said. 'A major El Niño event will set new records and establish a new baseline for global temperatures. And this new baseline is driven by global warming.'
This means that another cycle of extreme heat will come when the next major El Niño event sets in. The most likely scenario is that the next major El Niño event will occur in the early 2030s, which would make the Earth 1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial times.
In the Paris Agreement, an international framework for climate change, countries pledged to make every effort to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees. The good news is that the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy has begun. However, the transition has not been smooth and investment in fossil fuels continues.
'We will likely continue to see record-breaking temperatures, but this shouldn't continue forever,' Marchant said. 'There are many options available to accelerate the transition to a decarbonized economy, and pursuing them will become increasingly urgent.'
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