The economic impact of climate change could reach $6 trillion a year worldwide by 2049



Climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions is expected to have a major impact on endangered plants and animals, as well as on people's lives. A new estimate released by a research team at

the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany has revealed that the economic impact of climate change could reach approximately $38 trillion (approximately 6000 trillion yen) per year by 2049.

The economic commitment of climate change | Nature
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07219-0



Climate change will cost about $38 trillion a year by 2049, a new study calculates | AP News
https://apnews.com/article/climate-change-damage-economy-income-costly-3e21addee3fe328f38b771645e237ff9

Global Income Set to Shrink by One Fifth by 2050 Under Climate Change: ScienceAlert
https://www.sciencealert.com/global-income-set-to-shrink-by-one-fifth-by-2050-under-climate-change

Many people understand that climate change measures are important for the future prosperity of the Earth and humanity, but economists are divided on the question of 'how much budget should be allocated to climate change measures.' Climate change policies are often evaluated by balancing the costs of implementation with the damage of avoidable climate change, so it is necessary to predict macroeconomic damages associated with future climate change.

The researchers analysed climate and income data from the past 40 years for more than 1,600 locations around the globe to determine how changes in climate affect economic productivity, and then used these findings to project future economic losses from climate change.



The team's analysis showed that comparing a 'real world with global warming' with a 'fictional world without global warming,' the warming world would see a decline in global total income of about 19% per year, or $38 trillion, over the next 25 years. This decline in income is fixed and cannot be avoided, even if humanity were to actively reduce greenhouse gas emissions right now.

'Our analysis shows that climate change will cause significant economic damage in almost every country over the next 25 years, with median incomes in developed countries projected to fall by 11 percent in Germany and the United States and 13 percent in

France ,' said climate scientist Leonie Wentz, a co-author of the paper.

According to the study, southern states in the United States will suffer greater economic damage than northern states, and in Europe, southern countries including Spain and Italy will be more severely affected than northern regions such as Denmark and northern Germany. Only some regions bordering the Arctic Circle, such as Canada, Russia, Norway, Finland, and Sweden, will see economic benefits from climate change.

'The least responsible countries are projected to suffer income losses 60 percent higher than high-income countries and 40 percent higher than high-emitting countries. These countries are also the ones with the fewest resources to adapt to climate change,' said Anders Levermann , co-author of the study and head of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.



The study reports that economic damage occurring by 2049 is unavoidable, but future efforts may be able to limit economic damage in the second half of the 22nd century.

If the world were to come together and curb greenhouse gas emissions and limit the rise in average temperatures to less than 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre -industrial levels in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement , the economic damage would be limited to about 20%. However, if greenhouse gas emissions continue in the worst-case scenario, the economic damage would approach about 60%.

'Just because tens of trillions of dollars in damages have been confirmed doesn't mean that reducing carbon pollution won't pay off. The cost of action is only a fraction of the cost of unmitigated climate change ,' said Gernot Wagner, a climate scientist at Columbia Business School who was not involved in the study. He argued that the world must take action to combat climate change.

in Science, Posted by log1h_ik