Siberian tundra may disappear within 500 years
A
Regional opportunities for tundra conservation in the next 1000 years | eLife
https://elifesciences.org/articles/75163
Siberian tundra could vanish in less than 500 years | Live Science
https://www.livescience.com/vanishing-siberian-tundra
Arctic warming has progressed rapidly in recent decades, with the average temperature rising by nearly 4 degrees Celsius between 1960 and 2019, and the rate of warming in other regions. It is said that it has reached twice that. Not only is this causing the ice to thaw in the Arctic Circle, but it also leads to the spread of coniferous forests such as Siberian Larix sibir to the north and a decrease in tundra.
However, it is unclear how quickly the forest will erode the tundra, and it will vary from place to place, such as forestation progressing in some areas but regressing in other areas. Seems to be big. So AWI ecologists Stefan Kruse and Professor Ulrike Herzschuh created a computer model to evaluate all Siberian tundra over a total length of about 4000 km. With this model, it is possible to perform simulations that take into account the life cycle such as the spread of seeds of each tree and competition with other trees, the melting of permafrost, the temperature and precipitation in summer, and so on.
When the research team simulated various warming scenarios using the model, it was found that the tundra is difficult to recover once it is eroded by the forest, and it is unlikely that it will become a tundra again even if the temperature drops. As a result, it became clear that global warming causes catastrophic damage to the tundra.
For example, even in the optimistic scenario of 'carbon emissions going to zero by 2100 and global temperature rises at 2 degrees Celsius', as of 2500, only 32.7% of the tundra remains at the time of writing. The result was that it was not. In this case, the remaining tundra will be divided into the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug in the Far East and the Taymyr Peninsula in the north, which is expected to cause great damage to the reindeer population inhabiting the tundra and the culture of the indigenous Nenets . ..
Also, in the scenario of 'carbon emissions will not decrease by 2050, but will be reduced by half by 2100,' the tundra remaining by 2500 will be only 5.7% and the ecosystem will virtually disappear. And it was shown that the tundra could disappear from the earth by 2500 if the warming progresses further.
'It was amazing to us to see how quickly the tundra was surrendered to the forest,' Kruse said. 'If the tundra is lost, it will be a huge loss to humankind.' Also, because forests absorb more heat than snow-covered tundra, the land of Siberia may absorb more heat as forestation progresses, further warming the Arctic Circle. I point out that there is.
The consequences of the disappearance of the tundra are more than just destroying the local ecosystem. Since many greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane gas are stored in permafrost, there is concern that thawing of permafrost will further promote global warming ...
Research results show that the effect of melting permafrost on the global environment is 'twice the previous estimate' --GIGAZINE
It has also been suggested that viruses and bacteria stored in permafrost may be revived and infectious diseases may spread.
Warming can cause an 'infectious disease epidemic'-GIGAZINE
Kruse argues that the computer model could help identify the most resilient areas of the tundra and prioritize investments for species and environmental conservation. 'The best option is to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to reduce warming pressures, but if that isn't possible, species conservation needs to be done,' he said.
Related Posts:
in Science, Posted by log1h_ik