Researchers claim that there are four hostile extraterrestrial civilizations in this galaxy, a unique study from 'the possibility of humanity invading other stars.'



There are many attempts to get humanity to be found by extraterrestrial civilization, such as the

Voyager project that sent humanity's messages and music to the record and sent it to space, and the Arecibo message that sends messages directly to space by radio waves. However, there is an argument that ' the search for extraterrestrial civilization should be avoided ' because aliens are not always friendly. A new research result was announced that 'the Milky Way galaxy where human beings live has four hostile extraterrestrial civilizations that are willing to invade the earth.'

[2205.11618] Estimating the prevalence of malicious extraterrestrial civilizations
https://arxiv.org/abs/2205.11618

There may be 4 evil alien civilizations in the galaxy | Live Science
https://www.livescience.com/malicious-alien-civilizations-odds

There Are 4'Malicious Extraterrestrial Civilizations' in Milky Way, Researcher Estimates
https://www.vice.com/en/article/qjbgkm/there-are-4-malicious-extraterrestrial-civilizations-in-milky-way-researcher-estimates

In considering how many hostile extraterrestrial civilizations are in the galaxy, Alberto Caballero, who studies conflict issues at the University of Vigo, Spain, first looked at the invasion of humankind on Earth. When Caballero investigated the countries that invaded other countries between 1915 and 2022, he found that 51 of the 195 countries in the world were in a war of aggression. The top number of invasions was 14 in the United States, followed by 11 in Israel and 10 in Russia.



Mr. Caballero then calculates the probability of each country invading from the military costs of the invading country, sums it up and divides by the number of all nations on the planet, 'Humanity invades extraterrestrial civilization. 'Probability' was calculated. The probability of invasion by humankind is determined by the idea that 'the probability that an intellectual civilization has malicious intent can be estimated from the probability that human beings pose a threat to other civilizations.'

When Mr. Caballero actually calculated, the result was that the probability of aggression was 0.028%. However, this is calculated from the civilization level of modern human beings who cannot move between stars. 'When applied to the

Kardashev Scale , which classifies the altitude of civilizations based on the energy they can consume, it will take another 259 years for humanity to become a Type I civilization capable of interstellar travel,' Caballero points out.

Since the invasion between human beings has gradually decreased over the past 50 years, it is thought that the probability of aggression will decrease from 0.028% to 0.0014% by the time human beings become a Type I civilization. This seems like a very low probability, but the Italian astronomer Claudio Maccone, who is involved in the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) project, previously announced '15,785 civilizations in the Milky Way Galaxy.' When applied to the estimation result that 'there is', the number of Type I civilizations trying to invade other countries is '15785 x 0.0014% = 0.22', that is, less than one.

On the other hand, as humans do, the number of malicious neighbors, given the existence of 'a civilization that has not yet reached a Type I civilization but could invade if it could go to another planet'. Jumps up to '15785 x 0.028% = 4.42'. This means that there are four or more potential invaders in the Milky Way galaxy.



However, as mentioned above, this number includes civilizations that cannot enter space yet, so the probability that the Earth will actually be invaded is two orders of magnitude lower than the probability that an asteroid that destroys the planet will fly. thing. Also, as long as we don't even know if aliens have brains made of materials similar to humans, it's unclear whether extraterrestrial civilizations will think in the same way as Earthlings, Caballero admits.

Mr. Caballero hopes that this research will be useful in discussing whether or not the existence of the earth will be transmitted to the universe. 'The fact that the estimated probability of extraterrestrial invasion is two orders of magnitude lower than the probability of an asteroid collision that would be a planetary killer tells Motherboard, a foreign media, that the fact that it is a nearby habitable solar system with radio waves and lasers It should take the international debate to the next step in deciding whether to send a message to an extraterrestrial planet. '

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