Why is the research result that 'drinking 1 to 4 glasses of red wine a week reduces the risk of infection with the new corona by 10%' is unreliable?
In January 2022, the research result that 'the habit of drinking red wine is related to the reduction of the risk of new corona infection' was published in an academic journal. The content is that 1 to 4 glasses of red wine per week will reduce the risk of new corona infection by about 10%, and 5 or more glasses per week will reduce it by 17%, so it seems that more people will drink red wine. 'It's a good example of why food and health studies are unreliable and need to be interpreted carefully,' said Hassan Valley, an epidemiologist at Deakin University in Australia. , Here are some points to note.
A recent study suggests red wine may protect you from COVID. But I wouldn't drink to this yet
The research on the subject was by Xi-jian Dai et al., Mental Health Center, Shenzhen Kangning Hospital.
Frontiers | COVID-19 Risk Appears to Vary Across Different Alcoholic Beverages | Nutrition
The findings presented in this study
Drinking at least 4 glasses of red wine a week reduces the risk of infection with the new corona by about 10%.
・ If you have 5 or more cups, the risk of infection is reduced by 17%.
・ White wine and champagne have a preventive effect, but not as much as red wine.
・ Beer increases the risk of infection by 7% to 28%
And so on.
Associate Professor Valley first points out that 'correlation does not match causality' as a problem.
This study was not conducted by collecting subjects, but based on the data collected in a large longitudinal study, the observation that investigated the relationship between 'drinking pattern' and 'diagnosis result of new corona'. It's a study. According to Associate Professor Valley, the analysis confidently says that 'drinking red wine is associated with a reduced chance of being diagnosed with the new corona.' It cannot be said that drinking is a factor that reduces the risk of infection. '
Factors other than drinking may be involved in reducing the likelihood of being diagnosed with the new corona in the group who drank red wine. The situation in which such external factors cause pseudo-correlation is called 'confounding', and it is very difficult to clarify what is really happening after completely eliminating the effects of confounding. am.
Associate Professor Valley also points out that 'data on drinking is unreliable.' One of the reasons is that the reliability of the information itself such as 'what you ate / drank' is low in the first place, and the level of error varies greatly from person to person, so it is difficult to correct. Second, the 'drinking patterns' used in the study were collected in the early stages of the longitudinal study, and were analyzed on the assumption that they would continue to be the same drinking patterns. Is not helpful because people's drinking patterns can change.
And even if red wine had the effect of reducing the risk of infection with the new corona, it would be of real significance, Associate Professor Valley said. Measures to reduce the risk of infection of the new corona include 'wearing a mask,' 'social distance,' 'thorough hand washing,' and 'vaccination.' The risk reduction, if really effective, is small and does not provide a strong preparation for the new Corona. Also, in reality, drinking alcohol has other potential toxic effects, so it is not recommended to drink red wine for the purpose of 'reducing the risk of new corona infection'.
''Red wine has no risk-reducing effect' is not the news that everyone wants to hear, but it's not surprising,' said Associate Professor Valley. It's not true, 'he concludes.
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