What is the actual simulation result if the Japanese government's official new type corona contact confirmation application 'COCOA' has the effect of suppressing infected people?
On June 19, 2020,
2020.07.28 Department of Management Engineering Yuto Omae et al. revealed the effect of reducing the number of COVID-19 (corona) infected persons using COCOA (contact confirmation application) by simulation | Nihon University College of Industrial Engineering
http://www.cit.nihon-u.ac.jp/pickupnews/34247.html
The contact confirmation application 'COCOA' is an application that enables you to receive notifications about the possibility of contact with a person who has been diagnosed with a new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) using the Bluetooth function of your smartphone. The details of the features and how to install are described in detail in the following articles.
Japanese government official new type corona contact confirmation application ``COCOA'' released, like this when actually installed-GIGAZINE
Since COCOA was released a few days ago, it was unclear to what extent it could actually prevent the spread of infection. Therefore, Assistant Professor Yuto Ohmae of Nihon University's Faculty of Industrial Engineering and others has made the COCOA application the number of people infected with COVID-19 by using a multi-agent simulation that builds a virtual society and makes people with various behavioral principles live their lives. I calculated the effect of reducing.
The simulation generated about 1,000 people from various positions, such as office workers and students, and assumed that 10 of them were infected with COVID-19. In a virtual society, I let them spend a month in their daily lives, such as going to work, going to school, and going shopping at a supermarket. Then, we simulated multiple times by changing the 'COCOA app usage rate' and 'the degree to which people who knew that the app had contact with an infected person refrained from going out' in steps of 20%.
The result table is below. If either or both of the 'application usage rate' and 'the degree to which people who know contact with infected people refrain from going out' are 0%, the number of infected people after one month swells from 10 to 73 It was. On the other hand, when both the 'application usage rate' and the 'degree of refraining from going out' are 40%, the number of infected people is 38, which is about half the number of people who do not use COCOA. I will.
In addition, researchers say that the number of infected people is 36.5 or less, which is half of 73, because 'app usage rate' and 'degree of refraining from going out' are '80%/20%' and '60%/ Focus on the cases of '40%' and '40%/60%' or more. Considering that it is not real that the usage rate of the application reaches 80%, 'If about half of the people use the application and know that they have contacted the infected person, they can go out in half. , The number of infected people will be halved.”
A person who uses COCOA reported to Twitter that he actually received a 'contact confirmation notice.'
Contact confirmation app COCOA, I thought that there would be too few positive registrants when I installed it, so I thought that notification would not come, but I got a contact confirmation notification.
— Mio M (@30_mio) August 3, 2020
Since there is no infected person in the surroundings, the possibility is a train or somewhere. .. The installation wasn't meaningless. pic.twitter.com/2amMtP6Vjt
'I can explain it to the company and wait at home, and the story is quick,' he said.
There is a notification from the application when there is contact for less than 15 minutes within 1 m! It is famous for not receiving a notification that there are not 100 positive registrants even though it is 10 million DL. There is a person who registered properly so I can explain it to the company and wait at home and the story is fast. Thank you for the person who registered as a positive registration! I will stay with my family for a week from today pic.twitter.com/A53KFIrRW3
— Qtmjp (@qtmjp) August 1, 2020
According to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare , the total number of COCOA downloads as of August 5 was about 11.57 million. This number of downloads is not necessarily the same as the number of users because it duplicately counts people who deleted it from the terminal and then downloaded it again, but the total population of Japan in July 2020 is 100 million. Even if we assume that 11.57 million people use the application out of 25.96 million, the usage rate of the application is about 9.1%, which is less than 10%.
Therefore, in order to achieve the situation that COCOA has shown to be highly effective in this research, it is necessary for more people to use COCOA and firmly refrain from going out when notified. I will.
COCOA can be installed free of charge from the following.
New Coronavirus Contact Confirmation App (Official Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare)-Preview-App on Google Play
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=jp.go.mhlw.covid19radar
'New Coronavirus Contact Confirmation App' on the App Store
Related Posts:
